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Post by Zany on Aug 10, 2024 9:20:44 GMT
Ukraine's incursion into Russia is "big" and represents much more than just a raid, our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.
"It began at dawn on Tuesday, and it looked like one of these freedom for Russia legion attacks," he says, referencing previous incursions by anti-Kremlin groups (not Ukraine itself).
"It looked like one of those attacks - a sort of pinprick attack - to embarrass the Russians and cause a bit of a problem," he adds.
As time has gone on, however, it has become clear that Kyiv could reinforce the area, after significant early gains.
"It looks as if the Ukrainians obviously decided to back this up... and within about 48 hours they were backing it up with apparently some quite big units," he adds, noting reports that American and German-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles have been on the ground.
Sky News is seeking to clarify whether any British military equipment has been used in the attack.
"They (Ukraine) look as if they've taken over at least a dozen settlements," he says.
"They've pushed in towards Sudzha, which is a logistical hub, and they've been fanning out, northeast and southeast from there," he adds.
Sudzha is the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
"They're miles deep into Russia... and that's big - that's not just a raid," Professor Clarke concludes.
As for Russia's response, he's not been impressed.
"The Russians thought they could deal with it with a few of their reserve battalions," he says, adding "that's not happening".
If they want to push the Ukrainians back, "they're going to have to commit more [resource]" to Kursk.
I assume with US approval?
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,633
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Post by Steve on Aug 11, 2024 1:02:33 GMT
Sadly it's a huge mistake IMHO. A morale booster maybe but it will help Putin with his false narrative, weaken support from some nations and will divert key resources into fighting on territory where they will be at a logistical disadvantage.
Only invade a territory where and when you believe you can summon and deploy the resources to crush the military of that territory. D Day and our retaking of the Falklands are good examples, Napoleon's and Hitler's invasion of Russia are examples of how it can end up hurting you big time.
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Post by Zany on Aug 11, 2024 6:10:55 GMT
Sadly it's a huge mistake IMHO. A morale booster maybe but it will help Putin with his false narrative, weaken support from some nations and will divert key resources into fighting on territory where they will be at a logistical disadvantage. Only invade a territory where and when you believe you can summon and deploy the resources to crush the military of that territory. D Day and our retaking of the Falklands are good examples, Napoleon's and Hitler's invasion of Russia are examples of how it can end up hurting you big time. Tricky, when they are lobbing things at you across the border with impunity. |
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Post by vinny on Aug 11, 2024 7:21:05 GMT
A brilliant move which cuts Russian supply lines and offers the opportunity to go round and attack the occupiers of Donbas from the rear.
It also has highlighted just how short of armour the Russian forces are.
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Post by Zany on Aug 11, 2024 7:37:25 GMT
A brilliant move which cuts Russian supply lines and offers the opportunity to go round and attack the occupiers of Donbas from the rear. It also has highlighted just how short of armour the Russian forces are. Do you know if the EU of US are ok with Ukraine crossing the border using their supplied weapons |
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
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Post by Steve on Aug 11, 2024 9:33:49 GMT
A brilliant move which cuts Russian supply lines and offers the opportunity to go round and attack the occupiers of Donbas from the rear. It also has highlighted just how short of armour the Russian forces are. It does nothing to cut the supply lines to the key Russian forces and it allows the Russians to fight already scarce Ukrainian forces when the latter have lengthened supply lines and no trenches.  |
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Post by vinny on Aug 11, 2024 16:41:45 GMT
The Russians have to attack without entrenchment, without minefields. They are vulnerable here.
And, there's the possibility of Ukraine circling round and attacking forces in Donbas from behind, so their minefields and trench systems do not protect but instead hinder them as they cannot retreat into their own minefields.
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Post by Zany on Aug 11, 2024 18:34:43 GMT
A brilliant move which cuts Russian supply lines and offers the opportunity to go round and attack the occupiers of Donbas from the rear. It also has highlighted just how short of armour the Russian forces are. It does nothing to cut the supply lines to the key Russian forces and it allows the Russians to fight already scarce Ukrainian forces when the latter have lengthened supply lines and no trenches. What it does is stop the Russians from firing and supplying from behind an invisible impenetrable barrier, which they thought their border was. |
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,633
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Post by Steve on Aug 11, 2024 21:31:32 GMT
The Russians have to attack without entrenchment, without minefields. They are vulnerable here. And, there's the possibility of Ukraine circling round and attacking forces in Donbas from behind, so their minefields and trench systems do not protect but instead hinder them as they cannot retreat into their own minefields. Nice dream but reality ain't like that. |
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Post by vinny on Aug 12, 2024 5:59:46 GMT
Reality is Putin is moving armour out of Donbas and redeploying it into Russia. He's getting extremely desperate.
He hasn't forgotten the Wagner Group's one day push and that was with far fewer men than the Ukrainians have and with far more basic equipment. The Ukrainians have shown how weak he is.
He now has to try to look strong.
In a situation like this, without minefields between his forces and the Ukrainians, he's at risk of making mistakes.
The Ukrainians have better tanks, better artillery, better drones and better tactics.
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Post by Amadan on Aug 12, 2024 6:34:27 GMT
.............This is the guy who was telling us two years ago , the Russians are finished , they are reduced to fighting with shovels........  |
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Post by Zany on Aug 12, 2024 6:43:24 GMT
Reality is Putin is moving armour out of Donbas and redeploying it into Russia. He's getting extremely desperate. He hasn't forgotten the Wagner Group's one day push and that was with far fewer men than the Ukrainians have and with far more basic equipment. The Ukrainians have shown how weak he is. He now has to try to look strong. In a situation like this, without minefields between his forces and the Ukrainians, he's at risk of making mistakes. The Ukrainians have better tanks, better artillery, better drones and better tactics. And the really big one, something to fight for. |
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Post by Amadan on Aug 12, 2024 6:45:43 GMT
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Post by vinny on Aug 12, 2024 10:50:54 GMT
Reality is Putin is moving armour out of Donbas and redeploying it into Russia. He's getting extremely desperate. He hasn't forgotten the Wagner Group's one day push and that was with far fewer men than the Ukrainians have and with far more basic equipment. The Ukrainians have shown how weak he is. He now has to try to look strong. In a situation like this, without minefields between his forces and the Ukrainians, he's at risk of making mistakes. The Ukrainians have better tanks, better artillery, better drones and better tactics. And the really big one, something to fight for. The continued existence of their country as an independent democracy. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2024 3:54:48 GMT
If they're invading Ukraine then Ukraine have the right to do same back, it's diverting resources from other areas so hurting Russia. I suspect the F-16 deployments have been a huge confidence booster for Ukraine
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