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Post by Zany on Aug 28, 2024 6:33:56 GMT
Prison spaces are at critical we have all heard that.
But the numbers are quite interesting, there are around 86,000 prison places, the population of the UK is circa 70,000,000.
That's around 0.1% of the population.
Can we assume that crime is much lower than we imagine?
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 8:34:12 GMT
Serious crime is indeed rare but when it happens it hits the newspapers and hence feels more prevalent. In truth most local newspapers could run with a headline “not much happened this week. People just got on with their lives”
More people for example die falling down stairs each year than are murdered.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 28, 2024 9:02:39 GMT
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Post by Zany on Aug 28, 2024 16:19:48 GMT
Staggering. In 2024 Over a million cases of violence 50,000 knife crimes 2.6 million thefts. But only 86,000 prison places. I'd say that shouts very loud that the odds of you gong to prison are next to zero. |
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 16:45:24 GMT
We have just about the highest incarceration rate per head in Europe Zany. We need to reduce the number of people going to prison.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 28, 2024 17:18:19 GMT
We have just about the highest incarceration rate per head in Europe Zany. We need to reduce the number of people going to prison. Only if we actually reduce serious crime first. |
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 17:53:33 GMT
That rather depends on what you mean by “serious crime”. Some people of course need to be held securely to protect the public. But let’s learn from for example Netherlands - a highly comparable country - who in the not distant past had similar incarceration rates to our own, consciously changed tack, now lock up roughly a third of people per head that we do, saved shedloads of money, spent half of it on better intervention , achieved significantly reduced reoffending rates which reduced crime which reduced number of victims of crime. It’s what happens when you decide policy on facts and not on tabloid headlines. Let’s hope we learn the lessons and copy success rather than perpetuate our own failure.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 28, 2024 18:19:25 GMT
That rather depends on what you mean by “serious crime”. Some people of course need to be held securely to protect the public. But let’s learn from for example Netherlands - a highly comparable country - who in the not distant past had similar incarceration rates to our own, consciously changed tack, now lock up roughly a third of people per head that we do, saved shedloads of money, spent half of it on better intervention , achieved significantly reduced reoffending rates which reduced crime which reduced number of victims of crime. It’s what happens when you decide policy on facts and not on tabloid headlines. Let’s hope we learn the lessons and copy success rather than perpetuate our own failure. You reckon? Well read this from a Dutch source just this year nltimes.nl/2024/03/01/people-feel-unsafe-netherlands
'More people feel unsafe in the Netherlands than two years ago. The number of people who fell victim to a traditional crime, like violence, theft, or vandalism, also increased, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported in its Safety Monitor 2023.
Last year, 35 percent of Netherlands residents said they felt unsafe in general and 15 percent felt unsafe in their neighborhood, compared to 33 percent and 13.9 percent in 2021. The feeling of insecurity increased the most in Flevoland, from 14 percent in 2021 to 17.5 percent last year.' |
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 18:31:27 GMT
You are comparing a two year period when nothing changed with the criminal justice system but Netherlands like us was recovering from Covid and coping with the cost of living crisis.
The change to their criminal justice system came around 15-20 years ago. They sent less people to prison, they saved shedloads of money, they focused on rehabilitation, their reoffending rates dropped to 10% compared to our 50% and as a result crime fell and hence victims of crime fell. Let’s do the same.
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Post by Zany on Aug 28, 2024 18:59:04 GMT
We have just about the highest incarceration rate per head in Europe Zany. We need to reduce the number of people going to prison. But even you must find the gap between crimes and prison places is crazy. I would agree prevention is better than prison, but we don't seem to be managing either. Incidentally France's crimes to prison places are similar. |
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Post by Zany on Aug 28, 2024 19:01:29 GMT
That rather depends on what you mean by “serious crime”. Some people of course need to be held securely to protect the public. But let’s learn from for example Netherlands - a highly comparable country - who in the not distant past had similar incarceration rates to our own, consciously changed tack, now lock up roughly a third of people per head that we do, saved shedloads of money, spent half of it on better intervention , achieved significantly reduced reoffending rates which reduced crime which reduced number of victims of crime. It’s what happens when you decide policy on facts and not on tabloid headlines. Let’s hope we learn the lessons and copy success rather than perpetuate our own failure. Have you any details? What sort of crimes etc. |
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 28, 2024 19:22:35 GMT
This doesn't suggest there's a chalk and cheese difference in crime rates per capita between the Uk and Netherlands. We're about 1/3 higher but then we have a much higher income inequality than they do and poverty and crime so often go together.
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 19:50:46 GMT
We have just about the highest incarceration rate per head in Europe Zany. We need to reduce the number of people going to prison. But even you must find the gap between crimes and prison places is crazy. I would agree prevention is better than prison, but we don't seem to be managing either. Incidentally France's crimes to prison places are similar. Like all our public services, our criminal justice system is in a dreadful state. France incarcerate approximately 25% less people per head than we do. Germany half. Netherlands do 40 to our 100. So let’s not berate ourselves for not having enough hugely expensive utterly failing prison places, let’s learn the lesson from similar countries who manage offenders better and hence get less reoffending and hence less future crime than we do. It really is basic common sense. |
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Post by dappy on Aug 28, 2024 19:52:31 GMT
That rather depends on what you mean by “serious crime”. Some people of course need to be held securely to protect the public. But let’s learn from for example Netherlands - a highly comparable country - who in the not distant past had similar incarceration rates to our own, consciously changed tack, now lock up roughly a third of people per head that we do, saved shedloads of money, spent half of it on better intervention , achieved significantly reduced reoffending rates which reduced crime which reduced number of victims of crime. It’s what happens when you decide policy on facts and not on tabloid headlines. Let’s hope we learn the lessons and copy success rather than perpetuate our own failure. Have you any details? What sort of crimes etc. Obviously it’s the lower level crimes. Inevitably there will be some people on all countries that need to be held seurely for public protection. |
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Post by Zany on Aug 28, 2024 19:58:41 GMT
This doesn't suggest there's a chalk and cheese difference in crime rates per capita between the Uk and Netherlands. We're about 1/3 higher but then we have a much higher income inequality than they do and poverty and crime so often go together. Oh how true. Throughout history inequality equals crime. And every time we learn it, we unlearn it again. Question is are we willing to do something about our inequality? |
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