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Post by Zany on Aug 19, 2024 12:29:53 GMT
That's out of the question. There would be more genocide. Oh yes. It would be the West washing their hands to make sure there was no blood on them Pilot
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 13:51:04 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end with a disaster
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Post by vinny on Aug 19, 2024 14:02:50 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end disaster Appeasement caused the disaster in the first place. It emboldened Putin and he thought nothing would happen if he invaded another country.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2024 15:50:18 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end disaster Really? They thought that in 1938 and it just led to a bigger disaster starting in 1939. You don't end wars by appeasement. You just convince the aggressors that you have no stomach for challenging them and that you are weak, and this merely emboldens them. Appeasing Hitler in 1938 did nothing to encourage him against war. It merely convinced him - in his own words - that the leaders of Britain and France were little worms whom he had met at Munich. This merely encouraged him to believe that we would never act against him which in fact made war pretty much inevitable when we had to. If the war in Ukraine becomes one primarily of manpower attrition, Russia will win in the end because it has vastly more manpower. But the higher the cost of that victory, the greater will be Putin's reluctance to attack anywhere else. If the war primarily becomes one of attrition of equipment, as long as we in the west keep supplying substantial quantities of top notch weaponry and logistics, Russia is unlikely to prevail, because collectively NATO has far greater economic resources than Russia when it comes to supplying that hardware. China could potentially supply Russia with a lot but is not yet doing so, and we need to ensure that it is in China's best interests not to do so. Ukraine is clearly trying to take the fight to the enemy and disrupt Russian plans and force them to divert resources. And free themselves from a war of manpower attrition which works in Russia's favour. The incursion in the Kursk area risks solidifying the Russian people in their support for the war and play into Putin's hands in terms of public opinion. But public opinion has ceased to be a major factor in Russian calculations, which are more about financial and geopolitical costs. What Putin must obviously be doing right now is remaining firm until the outcome of the US election becomes known, hoping for a Trump win. Because this would likely result in the rapid drying up of US military supplies to Ukraine whilst weakening NATO due to the uncertainty of US backing for it. This could be a game changer in Ukraine, making Russian victory inevitable. But if Trump loses, and Putin faces another four years at least of firm US backing for Ukraine, he might become more amenable to negotiations to cut his losses, at least behind the scenes. At which point we need to understand his need to be able to sell some kind of victory to his people as a face saver. Something he can sell at least as a political victory, however bogus. We need to understand this reality in furnishing any negotiating suggestions to him. His reason for fighting the war, he told his own people, were the rise of Nazis in Ukraine, persecution of Russian minorities, and the threat of an expansionist NATO. Any peace deal should include the removal and banning of any actual bona fide neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine as may exist, since such types are undesirable anywhere anyway, a guarantee of the rights of Russian minorities in Ukraine with a full right to their own language, and a promise that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO or the EU, in return for NATO and the EU guaranteeing it's borders. And with the Russians perhaps being allowed to keep Crimea, most of whose population are ethnic Russians, and which was never historically part of Ukraine. The toughest parts of such a negotiation might well prove to be the eastern parts of Ukraine taken by Russia, many parts of which had mixed populations of Russians and Ukrainians, with Russians in the majority in many places, complicated by the fact that Russia has often forcibly removed Ukrainians from such areas. Tough talking will be needed, but it is unlikely to even happen unless or until Trump loses in November.
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Post by Zany on Aug 19, 2024 16:43:15 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end disaster Out of curiosity Steve, what would you offer in appeasement?
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 16:54:49 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end disaster Really? They thought that in 1938 and it just led to a bigger disaster starting in 1939. You don't end wars by appeasement. You just convince the aggressors that you have no stomach for challenging them and that you are weak, and this merely emboldens them. Appeasing Hitler in 1938 did nothing to encourage him against war. It merely convinced him - in his own words - that the leaders of Britain and France were little worms whom he had met at Munich. This merely encouraged him to believe that we would never act against him which in fact made war pretty much inevitable when we had to. If the war in Ukraine becomes one primarily of manpower attrition, Russia will win in the end because it has vastly more manpower. But the higher the cost of that victory, the greater will be Putin's reluctance to attack anywhere else. . . . Surely that's to agree with my point.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 17:04:14 GMT
It's actually appeasement that's the route to end disaster Out of curiosity Steve, what would you offer in appeasement? I wasn't advocating appeasement I would offer these though: - reparations would be focussed on those guilty of war crimes incl illegal war waging ie not in any significant sense on the Russian people. - plebiscites in Crimea and the Donbas to allow those who were there in January 2014 and their children that have become adults since determine the future of those regios PROVIDED that Ukraine was fully compensated for economic loss of any area thus lost. - a binding promise by NATO that nuclear weapons would not be located in Ukraine PROVIDED that Russia locates none in Belarus or within 200km of Ukraine.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2024 17:14:59 GMT
Really? They thought that in 1938 and it just led to a bigger disaster starting in 1939. You don't end wars by appeasement. You just convince the aggressors that you have no stomach for challenging them and that you are weak, and this merely emboldens them. Appeasing Hitler in 1938 did nothing to encourage him against war. It merely convinced him - in his own words - that the leaders of Britain and France were little worms whom he had met at Munich. This merely encouraged him to believe that we would never act against him which in fact made war pretty much inevitable when we had to. If the war in Ukraine becomes one primarily of manpower attrition, Russia will win in the end because it has vastly more manpower. But the higher the cost of that victory, the greater will be Putin's reluctance to attack anywhere else. . . . Surely that's to agree with my point. Possibly. It could have been a typo. You described it as a route to end disaster, when you possibly meant to say it was a route to end in disaster. The omission of that word gives the sentence the opposite meaning to perhaps the one you intended.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 17:40:49 GMT
Ah, got it. Thanks, will correct.
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Post by vinny on Aug 19, 2024 18:24:34 GMT
Just honour the 1991 referendum and give the stolen lands back to Ukraine. We know the separatists thing was mostly actually Russian mercenaries.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 18:29:09 GMT
Just honour the 1991 referendum and give the stolen lands back to Ukraine. We know the separatists thing was mostly actually Russian mercenaries. Real politik says that's no way to an enduring peace. Fact is while taken as a whole the Donbas was (and likely the valid population still is) wanting to be part of Ukraine, there were significant areas of it that very much did not, it needs partitioning. And as for Crimea, taken as a whole a fair referendum in 2014 (not that they got one) would very likely have said it wanted to be part of Russia.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 18:38:49 GMT
and it's not all Ukraine good news right now www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr40wwzd4gyo 'Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of a key town in the Donbas region as Russian forces continue to make gains in the east of the country,'
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Post by vinny on Aug 19, 2024 19:33:27 GMT
You're right, it's still very serious at the moment. But cutting the logistics of the enemy is vital otherwise A lot more innocent people will be killed and displaced.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Aug 19, 2024 19:52:56 GMT
You're right, it's still very serious at the moment. But cutting the logistics of the enemy is vital otherwise A lot more innocent people will be killed and displaced. I just can't see how this incursion by Ukraine is interdicting the supply chains to the Russian Armies in the Donbas
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Post by Zany on Aug 19, 2024 20:56:52 GMT
Ah, got it. Thanks, will correct. Ah yes, now I see.
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