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Post by Saint on Aug 15, 2024 12:48:35 GMT
Ukraine's incursion into Russia is "big" and represents much more than just a raid, our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.
"It began at dawn on Tuesday, and it looked like one of these freedom for Russia legion attacks," he says, referencing previous incursions by anti-Kremlin groups (not Ukraine itself).
"It looked like one of those attacks - a sort of pinprick attack - to embarrass the Russians and cause a bit of a problem," he adds.
As time has gone on, however, it has become clear that Kyiv could reinforce the area, after significant early gains.
"It looks as if the Ukrainians obviously decided to back this up... and within about 48 hours they were backing it up with apparently some quite big units," he adds, noting reports that American and German-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles have been on the ground.
Sky News is seeking to clarify whether any British military equipment has been used in the attack.
"They (Ukraine) look as if they've taken over at least a dozen settlements," he says.
"They've pushed in towards Sudzha, which is a logistical hub, and they've been fanning out, northeast and southeast from there," he adds.
Sudzha is the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
"They're miles deep into Russia... and that's big - that's not just a raid," Professor Clarke concludes.
As for Russia's response, he's not been impressed.
"The Russians thought they could deal with it with a few of their reserve battalions," he says, adding "that's not happening".
If they want to push the Ukrainians back, "they're going to have to commit more [resource]" to Kursk.
I assume with US approval? A massive mistake, in my opinion. I haven't read the thread, but rhetoric about a US-supported invasion of Russia could end calamitously for us all. |
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Post by Zany on Aug 15, 2024 15:14:24 GMT
Ukraine's incursion into Russia is "big" and represents much more than just a raid, our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.
"It began at dawn on Tuesday, and it looked like one of these freedom for Russia legion attacks," he says, referencing previous incursions by anti-Kremlin groups (not Ukraine itself).
"It looked like one of those attacks - a sort of pinprick attack - to embarrass the Russians and cause a bit of a problem," he adds.
As time has gone on, however, it has become clear that Kyiv could reinforce the area, after significant early gains.
"It looks as if the Ukrainians obviously decided to back this up... and within about 48 hours they were backing it up with apparently some quite big units," he adds, noting reports that American and German-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles have been on the ground.
Sky News is seeking to clarify whether any British military equipment has been used in the attack.
"They (Ukraine) look as if they've taken over at least a dozen settlements," he says.
"They've pushed in towards Sudzha, which is a logistical hub, and they've been fanning out, northeast and southeast from there," he adds.
Sudzha is the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
"They're miles deep into Russia... and that's big - that's not just a raid," Professor Clarke concludes.
As for Russia's response, he's not been impressed.
"The Russians thought they could deal with it with a few of their reserve battalions," he says, adding "that's not happening".
If they want to push the Ukrainians back, "they're going to have to commit more [resource]" to Kursk.
I assume with US approval? A massive mistake, in my opinion. I haven't read the thread, but rhetoric about a US-supported invasion of Russia could end calamitously for us all. At the start of the invasion I would have agreed. But now I think we have seen just how weak Russia is compared to the U.S and we see China not wishing to get involved. So I'm less concerned now. Further I see no way Ukraine can end this war without pursuing Russian troops into their own country. Allowing them to supply and regroup behind their border each time they are beaten is an option for a forever war. |
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,633
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Post by Steve on Aug 15, 2024 16:59:17 GMT
There are only two ways Russia will end this: sanctions grind down the Russian nouveau riche class (that empower Putin) to the point of a coup or the continual casualties do the same for their poorer masses.
The first needs China and India to join the sanctions, the latter needs the West to keep supplying weapons and crucially, intelligence for years.
No quick happy endings
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Post by Zany on Aug 15, 2024 18:40:02 GMT
There are only two ways Russia will end this: sanctions grind down the Russian nouveau riche class (that empower Putin) to the point of a coup or the continual casualties do the same for their poorer masses. The first needs China and India to join the sanctions, the latter needs the West to keep supplying weapons and crucially, intelligence for years. No quick happy endings Spot on Steve. Though Chinas support is tenuous and will weaken as the West recovers and sales start to increase. |
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Post by Amadan on Aug 16, 2024 7:52:08 GMT
I dont have any problem with the Ukrainians fighting back against Russia, my point is about idiots parroting propaganda on how the Russians blew up their own pipeline. . . . There is the possibility that this Ukrainian national could be one of those rebels that want the Donbas to become part of Russia. could be, but that will need to be proved won't it? The continued point is imbeciles constantly parroting everything is the fault of Russia , and Putin is behind every evil deed in the world without a shred of proof in the case of the blowing up of this pipeline. Not one person knows what is going on in this war.....we are hearing third hand sanitised reports , but we go back to the certainty with which we were told by our truthful media that the Russian blew up their own pipeline , with no evidence , and no credibility of why they would do so , and now what we do know is the Germans have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian. I fail to understand why some people get so het up about the Ukraine war , when it is nothing whatsoever to do with the uk. Clearly we can all sympathise with ending this war , and the deaths and casualties on both sides , but I think the uk has enough major issues of its own , as a fast declining former world power , now reduced to a vassal state of the United States , a country that has humiliated the uk , and I include scotland in that , numerous times since the end of the Second World War. Perhaps it's a need to feel important on the world stage. Personally im more interested in solving issues in the uk than being diverted into international intrigue and proxy wars between the world powers , of which the uk isnt one. |
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Post by Amadan on Aug 16, 2024 7:53:53 GMT
Ukraine's incursion into Russia is "big" and represents much more than just a raid, our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.
"It began at dawn on Tuesday, and it looked like one of these freedom for Russia legion attacks," he says, referencing previous incursions by anti-Kremlin groups (not Ukraine itself).
"It looked like one of those attacks - a sort of pinprick attack - to embarrass the Russians and cause a bit of a problem," he adds.
As time has gone on, however, it has become clear that Kyiv could reinforce the area, after significant early gains.
"It looks as if the Ukrainians obviously decided to back this up... and within about 48 hours they were backing it up with apparently some quite big units," he adds, noting reports that American and German-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles have been on the ground.
Sky News is seeking to clarify whether any British military equipment has been used in the attack.
"They (Ukraine) look as if they've taken over at least a dozen settlements," he says.
"They've pushed in towards Sudzha, which is a logistical hub, and they've been fanning out, northeast and southeast from there," he adds.
Sudzha is the last operational trans-shipping point for Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
"They're miles deep into Russia... and that's big - that's not just a raid," Professor Clarke concludes.
As for Russia's response, he's not been impressed.
"The Russians thought they could deal with it with a few of their reserve battalions," he says, adding "that's not happening".
If they want to push the Ukrainians back, "they're going to have to commit more [resource]" to Kursk.
I assume with US approval? A massive mistake, in my opinion. I haven't read the thread, but rhetoric about a US-supported invasion of Russia could end calamitously for us all. fully agree. im astounded by folk who seem to dismiss Russias capabilities , and make false leaps in logic as to that they will do in defence of their nation , as one of the worlds three foremost military nuclear powers. |
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Post by Amadan on Aug 16, 2024 8:06:17 GMT
A massive mistake, in my opinion. I haven't read the thread, but rhetoric about a US-supported invasion of Russia could end calamitously for us all. At the start of the invasion I would have agreed. But now I think we have seen just how weak Russia is compared to the U.S and we see China not wishing to get involved. So I'm less concerned now. Further I see no way Ukraine can end this war without pursuing Russian troops into their own country. Allowing them to supply and regroup behind their border each time they are beaten is an option for a forever war. I believe Russia is militarily less capable than the USA , but to dismiss their enormous capabilities , with their thousands of nukes , and one of the largest armed forces on the globe , is a serious mistake. How do you know china doesn't want to get involved? Didnt I read somewhere at the beginning of this war china was supplying plate armour to the Russians ? It's in chinas interests that the USA doesn't win , and Russia isnt defeated . If for some miraculous reason the USA invaded Russia and conquered the country without a single nuke being fired , the USA would emerge even more powerful globally , and then turn their attention to china. So I have no idea why you think china isnt wanting to get involved. How can Ukraine end this war by pursuing Russian troops into their own country? Military experts have suggested Ukraine fighting Russia is the equivalent of Mexico fighting the USA . Ukraine may be able to take timid steps into the Russian border regions , but thats about it. Russia could end this war tomorrow , by simply nuking Ukraine .There may be many reasons why they dont , such as ethnic Russians in the proximity , the American response , and world wide condemnation , where at the minute much of the non western world appears to sympathise with Russia fighting a proxy war with the American empire. There have been suggestions the "forever war" you mention is the goal of the United States. They cant risk all out confrontation , so are simply attempting to drain Russia by fighting to the last Ukrainian. We need to find the root cause of why this war happened and the disagreements of both sides , try and help them come to a resolution , and end this war , no escalate it with inflammatory jingoistic clap trap. |
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Post by montegriffo on Aug 16, 2024 15:05:32 GMT
This is what my military advisor had to say about it.
Sgt Smitty (ret), 48th Highlanders
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Post by Zany on Aug 16, 2024 16:24:38 GMT
This is what my military advisor had to say about it. Sgt Smitty (ret), 48th Highlanders I like the idea you have a military advisor Monte. Its a downside of owning too many cats  That said he makes good points. |
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Post by Zany on Aug 16, 2024 16:42:10 GMT
At the start of the invasion I would have agreed. But now I think we have seen just how weak Russia is compared to the U.S and we see China not wishing to get involved. So I'm less concerned now. Further I see no way Ukraine can end this war without pursuing Russian troops into their own country. Allowing them to supply and regroup behind their border each time they are beaten is an option for a forever war. I believe Russia is militarily less capable than the USA , but to dismiss their enormous capabilities , with their thousands of nukes , and one of the largest armed forces on the globe , is a serious mistake. How do you know china doesn't want to get involved? Didnt I read somewhere at the beginning of this war china was supplying plate armour to the Russians ? It's in chinas interests that the USA doesn't win , and Russia isnt defeated . If for some miraculous reason the USA invaded Russia and conquered the country without a single nuke being fired , the USA would emerge even more powerful globally , and then turn their attention to china. So I have no idea why you think china isnt wanting to get involved. How can Ukraine end this war by pursuing Russian troops into their own country? Military experts have suggested Ukraine fighting Russia is the equivalent of Mexico fighting the USA . Ukraine may be able to take timid steps into the Russian border regions , but thats about it. Russia could end this war tomorrow , by simply nuking Ukraine .There may be many reasons why they dont , such as ethnic Russians in the proximity , the American response , and world wide condemnation , where at the minute much of the non western world appears to sympathise with Russia fighting a proxy war with the American empire. There have been suggestions the "forever war" you mention is the goal of the United States. They cant risk all out confrontation , so are simply attempting to drain Russia by fighting to the last Ukrainian. We need to find the root cause of why this war happened and the disagreements of both sides , try and help them come to a resolution , and end this war , no escalate it with inflammatory jingoistic clap trap. Firstly Russia is not going to use Nukes. MAD applies to Putin as much as Biden. Beyond that I noted how many military men were shocked at the poor state and training of Russia's military, we all assumed they were matching the states. The reason I think Chinas support will fall away is because China is your dream come true, they are amoral, they have no interest in anyone elses fight, democracy, rights, reasons. They are interested in the rest of the world, but purely in commercial terms and as the squabbles with the West resolve they will go where the money is. Particularly as Kazakhstan has large oil reserves and is happy to supply China in lieu of Russia. Ukraine cannot end this war by entering Russian territory, but the alternative is as I described above. Allow Russia to advance, retire, regroup and reinforce from just across the border Ukraine must not cross. America does not want a forever war but there is no stomach in the states to take part in yet another European war. If Russia used a nuke in Ukraine the rest of the civilised world would attack Russia en-mass, probably not with nukes but with overwhelming force. Russia's nukes wouldn't get past its borders, Putin's own military would turn against him. Never gonna happen. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2024 16:52:20 GMT
I believe Russia is militarily less capable than the USA , but to dismiss their enormous capabilities , with their thousands of nukes , and one of the largest armed forces on the globe , is a serious mistake. How do you know china doesn't want to get involved? Didnt I read somewhere at the beginning of this war china was supplying plate armour to the Russians ? It's in chinas interests that the USA doesn't win , and Russia isnt defeated . If for some miraculous reason the USA invaded Russia and conquered the country without a single nuke being fired , the USA would emerge even more powerful globally , and then turn their attention to china. So I have no idea why you think china isnt wanting to get involved. How can Ukraine end this war by pursuing Russian troops into their own country? Military experts have suggested Ukraine fighting Russia is the equivalent of Mexico fighting the USA . Ukraine may be able to take timid steps into the Russian border regions , but thats about it. Russia could end this war tomorrow , by simply nuking Ukraine .There may be many reasons why they dont , such as ethnic Russians in the proximity , the American response , and world wide condemnation , where at the minute much of the non western world appears to sympathise with Russia fighting a proxy war with the American empire. There have been suggestions the "forever war" you mention is the goal of the United States. They cant risk all out confrontation , so are simply attempting to drain Russia by fighting to the last Ukrainian. We need to find the root cause of why this war happened and the disagreements of both sides , try and help them come to a resolution , and end this war , no escalate it with inflammatory jingoistic clap trap. Firstly Russia is not going to use Nukes. MAD applies to Putin as much as Biden. Beyond that I noted how many military men were shocked at the poor state and training of Russia's military, we all assumed they were matching the states. The reason I think Chinas support will fall away is because China is your dream come true, they are amoral, they have no interest in anyone elses fight, democracy, rights, reasons. They are interested in the rest of the world, but purely in commercial terms and as the squabbles with the West resolve they will go where the money is. Particularly as Kazakhstan has large oil reserves and is happy to supply China in lieu of Russia. Ukraine cannot end this war by entering Russian territory, but the alternative is as I described above. Allow Russia to advance, retire, regroup and reinforce from just across the border Ukraine must not cross. America does not want a forever war but there is no stomach in the states to take part in yet another European war. If Russia used a nuke in Ukraine the rest of the civilised world would attack Russia en-mass, probably not with nukes but with overwhelming force. Russia's nukes wouldn't get past its borders, Putin's own military would turn against him. Never gonna happen. Ironically, MAD only applies to sane people. Hitler was prepared to see Germany completely destroyed. His thinking was that a losing state deserves whatever fate it is dealt. Is Putin sane? If he isn't, the MAD principle doesn't apply. |
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,633
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Post by Steve on Aug 16, 2024 19:44:13 GMT
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Post by Orac on Aug 17, 2024 9:58:02 GMT
A massive mistake, in my opinion. I haven't read the thread, but rhetoric about a US-supported invasion of Russia could end calamitously for us all. At the start of the invasion I would have agreed. But now I think we have seen just how weak Russia is compared to the U.S and we see China not wishing to get involved. So I'm less concerned now. Further I see no way Ukraine can end this war without pursuing Russian troops into their own country. Allowing them to supply and regroup behind their border each time they are beaten is an option for a forever war. How can you critisise a domino that falls halfway down a chain (rhetorical) The Russians will use similar reasoning in their response...and so on. The time to sort this out without hurting large numbers of people is long past and without a massive change in direction the situation is doomed to spiral out of everyone's interests |
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Post by Zany on Aug 17, 2024 11:36:00 GMT
At the start of the invasion I would have agreed. But now I think we have seen just how weak Russia is compared to the U.S and we see China not wishing to get involved. So I'm less concerned now. Further I see no way Ukraine can end this war without pursuing Russian troops into their own country. Allowing them to supply and regroup behind their border each time they are beaten is an option for a forever war. How can you critisise a domino that falls halfway down a chain (rhetorical) The Russians will use similar reasoning in their response...and so on. The time to sort this out without hurting large numbers of people is long past and without a massive change in direction the situation is doomed to spiral out of everyone's interests Are you suggesting the idea that if someone steals your car you should offer your motorbike in exchange? (Metaphor) |
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Post by Orac on Aug 18, 2024 10:14:10 GMT
How can you critisise a domino that falls halfway down a chain (rhetorical) The Russians will use similar reasoning in their response...and so on. The time to sort this out without hurting large numbers of people is long past and without a massive change in direction the situation is doomed to spiral out of everyone's interests Are you suggesting the idea that if someone steals your car you should offer your motorbike in exchange? (Metaphor) Are you suggesting that we not use discretion? The world is a terrible place - you can't fight all those battlesWe chose to antagonise a nuclear armed regional power in its own back garden. Was that a sensible choice? In the interests of ourselves? I'm not seeing huge cost vs benefits here (for us). In any case, the whole situation is now out of the control of the kind of limited halfwits we have in charge of decision-making. We would need basic leadership competence to get this under control and we no longer have it. I said sometime ago that i feel this is the idiot decision that triggers the loss of western hegemony..it will take time to unravel, but unraveling it is. I have not changed my opinion |
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