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Post by AvonCalling on Aug 8, 2024 9:57:31 GMT
While I enjoy the pushback, I do fear this has all the hallmarks of the Brexit issue again. Mostly middle class people leading the push back using logic and facts but meanwhile under the radar the likes of Farage indoctrinating working class people with a tissue of lies blaming immigrants for all ills working class people face and blaming the middle class elite for lying to them until one day we wake up too late and find the lies are now believed by a majority and we shoot ourselves in the foot again but as I said that happens because those in power will not address the issue and you said that is because it would be electoral suicide so what's to be done |
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 10:12:48 GMT
Absolutely no idea!
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Post by equivocal on Aug 8, 2024 10:32:24 GMT
While I enjoy the pushback, I do fear this has all the hallmarks of the Brexit issue again. Mostly middle class people leading the push back using logic and facts but meanwhile under the radar the likes of Farage indoctrinating working class people with a tissue of lies blaming immigrants for all ills working class people face and blaming the middle class elite for lying to them until one day we wake up too late and find the lies are now believed by a majority and we shoot ourselves in the foot again I was thinking more of the effect of the Mail & Express cheering on what are essentially very liberal demonstrators. |
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Post by Hutchyns on Aug 8, 2024 10:49:08 GMT
dappy
Is this where the middle class are going wrong? If they're armed with facts and logic and Farage only has a tissue of lies, they should be winning the argument ..... Farage's lies can be unravelled and exposed, whereas the logic and facts which the Middle Class have at their disposal will withstand any scrutiny. Are they not delivering their information under the radar perhaps ? With the cards and the mainstream media stacked in their favour, maybe the Middle class need to come out of their coffee shops and work harder at disseminating those facts and logic to their home helps, nannies, dustmen etc.
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Post by AvonCalling on Aug 8, 2024 10:56:43 GMT
dappy Is this where the middle class are going wrong? If they're armed with facts and logic and Farage only has a tissue of lies, they should be winning the argument ..... Farage's lies can be unravelled and exposed, whereas the logic and facts which the Middle Class have at their disposal will withstand any scrutiny. Are they not delivering their information under the radar perhaps ? With the cards and the mainstream media stacked in their favour, maybe the Middle class need to come out of their coffee shops and work harder at disseminating those facts and logic to their home helps, nannies, dustmen etc. I would say the idea that the middle class are leading the fight back with facts and logic is not all the story...what are thw middle class pushing back against? Is it that the middle class aren't affected by the levels of immigration so just want the violence to end? I keep coming back to the fact that IMO 650k net migration a year is madness and I struggle to comprehend how anyone can be relaxed about that unless it doesn't affect them or they have no comprehension of the affects down the road if this |
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 11:07:47 GMT
Within the context of population statistics showing that age profile of “white British” people is increasing significantly (median age increased from 42 to 45 in ten years) and there is a significant bulge in population in the 50-65 category who will expect to retire and be funded by the working population soon, what specific steps would you take to reduce immigration numbers and what do you see as the consequences positive and negative of doing so?
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Post by AvonCalling on Aug 8, 2024 11:17:14 GMT
Within the context of population statistics showing that age profile of “white British” people is increasing significantly (median age increased from 42 to 45 in ten years) and there is a significant bulge in population in the 50-65 category who will expect to retire and be funded by the working population soon, what specific steps would you take to reduce immigration numbers and what do you see as the consequences positive and negative of doing so? It's a good question that requires grown up thinking so to start with idlike to see what the demographic change looks like mapped against population growth. The latter if which is probably all net migration as IIRC taking net migration out we would have a shrinking population. In the very simplistic terms I'd establish what population growth we need to deal with the bulge I would be surprised if it's 650k a year. |
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 11:32:22 GMT
Population figures by age and ethnicity and all sorts of other splits are available on line. Whatever information you need is there.
You say immigration is too high. I have asked you what specifically you would do to reduce it and what you think the advantages and disadvantages would be. You don’t have to give me every measure. Just the best example.
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Post by AvonCalling on Aug 8, 2024 12:09:51 GMT
I wouldn’t say this is the best example but here goes:
Alter the points based system so that the majority of immigrants are high skilled that we do not have in the UK. Consider this immigration to be short term visas whilst the UK trains people with these skills.
Disadvantage: Likely costs will increase for those relying on immigrants. If you business model is based on using immigrants rather than the indigenous population maybe your business model isn’t sustainable.
Advantage: Less overcrowding and less demand on public resources.
For example last year net migration was 650K does anyone think we increased the number of GP’s last year to maintain the number of GP’s to people or that the number of GP’s to people decreased so that it takes longer for people to get an appointment and in some cases these people will have suffered longer with their ailments.
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 12:23:51 GMT
Ok. Reality though is that people can’t come in on a work visa unless they are high skilled and the sponsoring employer can show that there are no suitable UK residents capable of doing job.
The exception is a handful of lower skilled roles where we simply can’t fill vacancies of which the biggest is back to social care (if you count that as low skilled).
So if you want to stop those roles being filled by foreigners at a time when the population is ageing and hence demand increasing, you either have to force/encourage British people to do jobs they really don’t want to do or let in need suffer due to lack of people to provide the care. What is your solution here?
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Post by equivocal on Aug 8, 2024 12:31:23 GMT
Within the context of population statistics showing that age profile of “white British” people is increasing significantly (median age increased from 42 to 45 in ten years) and there is a significant bulge in population in the 50-65 category who will expect to retire and be funded by the working population soon, what specific steps would you take to reduce immigration numbers and what do you see as the consequences positive and negative of doing so? It's a good question that requires grown up thinking so to start with idlike to see what the demographic change looks like mapped against population growth. The latter if which is probably all net migration as IIRC taking net migration out we would have a shrinking population. In the very simplistic terms I'd establish what population growth we need to deal with the bulge I would be surprised if it's 650k a year. We looked at dependency ratios (working population to pensioners) and the effects of immigration on this thread. The links you need are there.
The dependency ratio is currently around 300 pensioners to around 1000 workers. To mantain that ratio I estimated (roughly) that the population would need to increase to around 90,000,000 by 2042 - all fuelled by immigration.
As far as I can see the figures don't appear sustainable and I would guess that we are going to have to maintain output using fewer people through investment and I'd also guess that universal state pensions will need to be replaced by some kind of mean tested benefit for older people.
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Post by AvonCalling on Aug 8, 2024 12:47:17 GMT
Ok. Reality though is that people can’t come in on a work visa unless they are high skilled and the sponsoring employer can show that there are no suitable UK residents capable of doing job. The exception is a handful of lower skilled roles where we simply can’t fill vacancies of which the biggest is back to social care (if you count that as low skilled). So if you want to stop those roles being filled by foreigners at a time when the population is ageing and hence demand increasing, you either have to force/encourage British people to do jobs they really don’t want to do or let in need suffer due to lack of people to provide the care. What is your solution here? OK so this is where the issue is. I do not believe that what you say is reality is the case at all. I would say that if we were importing high skilled workers and only a handful of low skilled workers that our GDP would be significantly higher. So can you point me to where it is that you get your reality from please.
We can come back to the other thing but the fact that you think the majority of migrants are high skilled workers and I think it is low skilled workers is where our "disconnect" appears to be.
I do struggle to understand though how before brexit we had migration at 350K and now it is at 650K. That's nearly double and productivity and GDP are still quite poor. Why the massive increase in demand and why still low productivity and GDP if they are high skilled workers
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 13:20:42 GMT
Of course I can. With respect, its the difference between the actual facts and your perception. As I outlined above, there are two main forms of work visa 1) Skilled Worker - The "ronseal" visa 2) Health and Care worker - www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration/work-visas |
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,708
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Post by Steve on Aug 8, 2024 14:30:22 GMT
For a start misinformation has to be pushed back on wherever it appears - and yes Orac that includes here. And those that seek violence need to continue to be dealth with quickly and with the full force of the law. And within weeks of parliament coming back into session we need to make gathering in a public place with face obscured without reasonable excuse an offence. And then remove the blanket immunities Twitter, Facebook etc get. If that means we end up blocking Telegram etc so be it. BUT We also have to look at some of the causes of unrest. I say it again (and I'll keep saying it), 1.5 million unemployed and many more off books unemployed is no recipe for stability, neither is a situation where those in minimum wage jobs and zero hours contracts are paying taxes and seeing the true rich paying very little. And yes we have to cut immigration and get really tough on those arriving in boats, backs of lorries etc. They are seen to be taking the piss out of the law and that just encourages others to do same. South Georgia is still available to place them on. |
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Post by dappy on Aug 8, 2024 15:00:37 GMT
Immigration and asylum are too very different things Steve.
Lets not get them confused and in this thread concentrate on the much larger number - conventional immigration.
Actually net immigration is likely to fall naturally this year or next as the post Covid spike in net educational immigration falls away and the mergency social care spike caused by the previous government's focus on headlines not practical solutions mitigates.
Could I ask you the question asked to Avon. He has struggled a bit to be honest. What specifically you would do to reduce it and what you think the advantages and disadvantages would be. You don’t have to give me every measure. Just the best example.
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