Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 7:21:48 GMT
Opinion has moved against Brexit now but the fact that a majority voted for it cannot be dismissed. As far as we on the left were concerned - setting aside your lazy labelling as Corbynites - we were actually split on Brexit. I for one opposed it and voted Remain. It was however never a top issue for us either way. Nevertheless, amongst Labour's working class former core vote Brexit was popular which fact allowed the Tories to smash the Red Wall. Because you yourself opposed Brexit you appear temperamentally incapable of recognising the massive part it played in the 2019 defeat. Because you believe Corbyn to have been a dangerous threat, Deleted personal insult. But what seems clear is that you are allowing your own perceived interests and beliefs to skew your assessments.... Corbyn bad - so he must be entirely to blame for Labour's defeat. Labour's attempt to stymie Brexit good - so cannot be to blame for Labour's defeat. And thus your assessment of what happened is made to fit your own ideological assumptions. Which is of course very comforting. Opinion moved against it within a year of the referendum when people woke up to the fact there had been no preparation. Corbynites is not lazy labelling its just a term that's easy to understand. A group of Labour supporters who didn't like New Labour and are further left. Au contraire. I believe the reason Boris got his supposed support for 'get Brexit done' was because the alternative was Corbyn and 1974 style politics. And who does not let their preconceived interests and beliefs skew their assessments. You as much as any. I try hard not to. I am not saying that Corbyn was not a factor for some. But toi deny that Brexit was a major factor in the scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 is to deny reality. Polling at the time showed that at least half of lifelong Labour supporters were also supporters of Brexit.
|
|
|
Post by Zany on Jul 16, 2024 7:59:29 GMT
Opinion moved against it within a year of the referendum when people woke up to the fact there had been no preparation. Corbynites is not lazy labelling its just a term that's easy to understand. A group of Labour supporters who didn't like New Labour and are further left. Au contraire. I believe the reason Boris got his supposed support for 'get Brexit done' was because the alternative was Corbyn and 1974 style politics. And who does not let their preconceived interests and beliefs skew their assessments. You as much as any. I try hard not to. I am not saying that Corbyn was not a factor for some. But toi deny that Brexit was a major factor in the scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 is to deny reality. Polling at the time showed that at least half of lifelong Labour supporters were also supporters of Brexit. To help settle this, what was Labours position on Brexit in 2019?
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on Jul 16, 2024 8:02:06 GMT
IIRC they campaigned on renegotiation then holding a second referendum. What Corbyn should have been demanding ever since the illegality was finally admitted. But Corbyn wanted us to leave so he was never going to argue for that and had he won in 2019 he would have likely have dropped that 2nd referendum plan.
|
|
|
Post by Zany on Jul 16, 2024 8:05:33 GMT
IIRC they campaigned on renegotiation then holding a second referendum. What Corbyn should have been demanding ever since the illegality was finally admitted. But Corbyn wanted us to leave so he was never going to argue for that and had he won in 2019 he would have likely have dropped that 2nd referendum plan. Those would be my words. Mixed messages. Had he have said Labour would call a new referendum I would have voted Labour along side many Remainers.
|
|
|
Post by Hutchyns on Jul 16, 2024 8:24:00 GMT
srb7677
An obviously frustrating position for Corbyn to find himself in, when it seemed to me that he was far more interested in getting his International Socialist message out and calling for the workers of the world to unite. But he had the prospective voters from the Labour Party split down the middle as that 2019 election approached. The Working Class section that srb777 encountered on the doorstep, annoyed and affronted that some in the Party wanted to dismiss their 2016 Referendum vote, and annoyed by suggestions that the (mostly Northerners) were too stupid to know what they were voting for, and so a second vote to provide the 'correct result' was urgently needed. Then there was the other half of the modern day Labour Party, portrayed in all their hideously white affluent middle class glory on every occasion a TV camera showed the passengers inside a coach heading to London for an anti-Brexit March, or gave us any coverage of the marchers themselves. No working behind shop counters on a Saturday for them, they were free to travel to London in their numbers.
Corbyn knew he had to rely on the votes of each section if he had any hope of winning the election, but also recognized that constructing a message on the issue that resonated with both sides just wasn't possible. Didn't Corbo just attempt to dodge the issue as best he could ?, concentrating on the issues and arguments on which he was strongest, while also not constraining Starmer who was enthusiastically playing to the Middle class Remain crowd, preaching a subliminal 'Ignore the Northern thickos, Labour's working class roots were dug up decades ago ....... make the stupid sods vote again' line.
The resulting resentment has meant Labour can't increase their vote. There are sufficient numbers who would and did either stay at home or vote Reform rather than vote for a Starmer led Labour Party. They can't be won back, but they can probably be replaced by awarding voting rights to the 16 and 17 year old cohort.
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jul 16, 2024 8:51:16 GMT
And yet in 2019 they voted differently Because the alternative was Jeremy 'my friends Hamas' Corbyn And Corbyn's Labour still managed to get more votes than Keir Starmer's Labour.
|
|
|
Post by equivocal on Jul 16, 2024 8:54:47 GMT
IIRC they campaigned on renegotiation then holding a second referendum. What Corbyn should have been demanding ever since the illegality was finally admitted. But Corbyn wanted us to leave so he was never going to argue for that and had he won in 2019 he would have likely have dropped that 2nd referendum plan. Those would be my words. Mixed messages. Had he have said Labour would call a new referendum I would have voted Labour along side many Remainers. It seems that Labour's ambiguous position on the matter of Brexit was sufficient to lose seats almost entirely within constituencies that had voted to leave.
As such, I think it is reasonable to say that Brexit was a major factor in Labour losing the election in 2019. I think it's also reasonable to say that on a FPTP basis the 2019 election was an endorsement of the leave decision.
For what it's worth, I would not have voted for Labour with Corbyn as its leader irrespective of whatever the party promised.
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jul 16, 2024 9:03:13 GMT
And yet in 2019 they voted differently Not really. Anti Brexit scored more votes than Tories and Brexit Party combined. Not really. Labour's position was ambiguous, Corbyn had allowed his arm to be twisted but the policy of a second referendum wasn't an automatic anti Brexit policy. Take Labour out of the picture and the rabidly anti Brexit parties, Greens and Lib Dems didn't come close.
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jul 16, 2024 9:04:16 GMT
Opinion moved against it within a year of the referendum when people woke up to the fact there had been no preparation. Corbynites is not lazy labelling its just a term that's easy to understand. A group of Labour supporters who didn't like New Labour and are further left. Au contraire. I believe the reason Boris got his supposed support for 'get Brexit done' was because the alternative was Corbyn and 1974 style politics. And who does not let their preconceived interests and beliefs skew their assessments. You as much as any. I try hard not to. I am not saying that Corbyn was not a factor for some. But toi deny that Brexit was a major factor in the scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 is to deny reality. Polling at the time showed that at least half of lifelong Labour supporters were also supporters of Brexit. That's why the Red Wall lent their votes to the Tories and Labour lost its heartlands. Even this year the Labour vote has not recovered, it's simply that the Tory vote has been split so heavily.
|
|
|
Post by Zany on Jul 16, 2024 9:10:40 GMT
srb7677 An obviously frustrating position for Corbyn to find himself in, when it seemed to me that he was far more interested in getting his International Socialist message out and calling for the workers of the world to unite. But he had the prospective voters from the Labour Party split down the middle as that 2019 election approached. The Working Class section that srb777 encountered on the doorstep, annoyed and affronted that some in the Party wanted to dismiss their 2016 Referendum vote, and annoyed by suggestions that the (mostly Northerners) were too stupid to know what they were voting for, and so a second vote to provide the 'correct result' was urgently needed. Then there was the other half of the modern day Labour Party, portrayed in all their hideously white affluent middle class glory on every occasion a TV camera showed the passengers inside a coach heading to London for an anti-Brexit March, or gave us any coverage of the marchers themselves. No working behind shop counters on a Saturday for them, they were free to travel to London in their numbers. Corbyn knew he had to rely on the votes of each section if he had any hope of winning the election, but also recognized that constructing a message on the issue that resonated with both sides just wasn't possible. Didn't Corbo just attempt to dodge the issue as best he could ?, concentrating on the issues and arguments on which he was strongest, while also not constraining Starmer who was enthusiastically playing to the Middle class Remain crowd, preaching a subliminal 'Ignore the Northern thickos, Labour's working class roots were dug up decades ago ....... make the stupid sods vote again' line. The resulting resentment has meant Labour can't increase their vote. There are sufficient numbers who would and did either stay at home or vote Reform rather than vote for a Starmer led Labour Party. They can't be won back, but they can probably be replaced by awarding voting rights to the 16 and 17 year old cohort. Your bias shows here Hutchyns. "The Working Class section that srb777 encountered on the doorstep, annoyed and affronted that some in the Party wanted to dismiss their 2016 Referendum vote, and annoyed by suggestions that the (mostly Northerners) were too stupid to know what they were voting for," The good guys"Then there was the other half of the modern day Labour Party, portrayed in all their hideously white affluent middle class glory on every occasion a TV camera showed the passengers inside a coach heading to London for an anti-Brexit March," The bad guys
In reality is was more complicated than that and the complaints from remainers like me were not that anyone was too stupid to understand, but that we were all forced to vote on something we couldn't understand because there had been no negotiations aforehand. So no one had any idea what the result of leaving might mean. This left the field open for any sort of promised future you fancy. What a crazy arsed way to decide something.
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on Jul 16, 2024 9:15:07 GMT
What they actually said in 2019: 'Labour will give the people the final say on Brexit. Within three months of coming to power, a Labour government will secure a sensible deal. And within six months, we will put that deal to a public vote alongside the option to remain. A Labour government will implement whatever the people decide' ucrel.lancs.ac.uk/wmatrix/ukmanifestos2019/localpdf/Labour.pdf
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 10:14:41 GMT
I try hard not to. I am not saying that Corbyn was not a factor for some. But toi deny that Brexit was a major factor in the scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 is to deny reality. Polling at the time showed that at least half of lifelong Labour supporters were also supporters of Brexit. To help settle this, what was Labours position on Brexit in 2019? It was five years ago now so forget the precise details since they ceased to be relevant as soon as the election was lost. But it was something like negotiating a better deal then putting that to the people in a referendum, with many senior figures saying they should also include Remaining as an option. I cannot recall if that latter became party policy or not but it was widely believed by Brexit supporters and party members that that is what we'd be offered if Labour won. I for one supported that policy since it was obvious to me at the time that Brexit had been sold on a tissue of lies and that it was only fair to have the actual reality ratified by the people, or even giving them the chance to change their minds completely. I saw this as democracy in action. However, the fact that Brexit supporters saw all this as an attempt to subvert their already democratically expressed will, and that this went down very badly with many of them on the doorstep cannot be credibly denied. I suspect that unlike you I was actually going door to door and speaking to voters in that election campaign, and it was far and away the main thing many of our former supporters felt most angry about, certainly in the predominantly working class area I was canvassing. There was a fair degree of distaste for Corbyn too, especially amongst pensioners, but the anger at Labour's perceived attempt to reverse Brexit for those who had voted for it and still believed in it was actually much more of a thing that was encountered all the time
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 10:36:41 GMT
I try hard not to. I am not saying that Corbyn was not a factor for some. But toi deny that Brexit was a major factor in the scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 is to deny reality. Polling at the time showed that at least half of lifelong Labour supporters were also supporters of Brexit. That's why the Red Wall lent their votes to the Tories and Labour lost its heartlands. Even this year the Labour vote has not recovered, it's simply that the Tory vote has been split so heavily. In simple terms what happened to Labour's former working class vote was that it became concerned with being economically disadvantaged by cheap migrant labour from eastern Europe and blamed Labour for this. But their concerns about this were dismissed as groundless and they were labelled racists for expressing them. A few might have been but most were concerned about the economics of the situation. As a consequence the working class in large numbers began to desert Labour and looked for someone who would recognise their legitimate concerns, and thus found their way to Farage and support for Brexit. In 2010 Labour's vote actually held up much better amongst more middle class supporters. It was the loss of many working class voters - already apparent then - which cost it that election. Fast forward to the Brexit referendum and two factors stand out. One is that support for Brexit was much higher amongst older voters. But the other is that it was much higher amongst working class voters of all age groups, many of whom would have been former Labour supporters. When Brexit narrowly won and Labour was seen by many of their Brexit voting former supporters as complicit in what they took to be an attempt to stymie it, working class anger at this perceived attempt to subvert what they had voted for was palpable. Add to that Farage standing down, and Boris Johnson's simple promise to get Brexit done and it is clear what led to the collapse of the red wall due to so many working class former Labour voters voting Tory. As someone who spoke to a lot of working class former Labour voters I know from personal experience that this is how they felt. And it is why the red wall collapsed, having been weakened over the preceding two decades. And both voting and abstention patterns clearly suggest that Labour is as yet nowhere near winning them all back.
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jul 16, 2024 10:44:37 GMT
Support for leaving the EU began as soon as the Maastricht Treaty was proposed without giving us the say on whether or not to sign. See the Maastricht rebellion, it was bigger than the Tory party and Labour did not recognise Maastricht rebels outside the Conservatives until decades later when the Red Wall gave them the boot.
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on Jul 16, 2024 10:46:55 GMT
Support for leaving the EU began as soon as the Maastricht Treaty was proposed without giving us the say on whether or not to sign. See the Maastricht rebellion, it was bigger than the Tory party and Labour did not recognise Maastricht rebels outside the Conservatives until decades later when the Red Wall gave them the boot. You had an election, the biggest turnout election in UK history to object to Maastrcht and anti Maastricht parties got bugger all votes and all deposits lost.
|
|