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Post by RedRum on Jul 9, 2024 7:19:53 GMT
My bet is Kemi Bad Enoch.
They will probably go far right to grab reform voters.
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Post by Orac on Jul 9, 2024 7:37:53 GMT
They will tack to the left of labour party.
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Post by dappy on Jul 9, 2024 7:50:12 GMT
Which way to go next is a big question for them as is whether the gulf between one nationers and “populists” is simply too wide to bridge.
Seems the top five in betting are currently
Badenoch - if they want to focus on culture wars - 25% chance
Jenrick - who seems to have moved from one nation to populist in one east move when he perceived the tide turning 16%
Tugendhat - one nation standard bearer, is he really best they have 12%
Patel - populist - 8%
Cleverly - perhaps most likely if they want to maintain bridge -8%
Someone else to emerge 30%
Seems like even the Tories have lost patience with Braverman who will likely end up with Reform.
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
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Post by Steve on Jul 9, 2024 9:46:21 GMT
My bet is Kemi Bad Enoch. They will probably go far right to grab reform voters. With Mordaunt out of the way, Badenoch is the overwhelming clear favourite. She'd need to raise her game though to be a credible leader but she does appear to have the intelligence to do that. |
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Post by dappy on Jul 9, 2024 10:02:36 GMT
She is the current favourite at the bookies Steve but in no sense of the word “overwhelming favourite”.
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
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Post by Steve on Jul 9, 2024 10:09:14 GMT
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Post by dappy on Jul 9, 2024 10:48:02 GMT
It’s all about that lazy English you refer to elsewhere.
Overwhelming favourite to me would mean heavy odds on meaning there is a markedly better than 50% chance of the event happening.
In this case they rate her about 25-30% chance
The next guy has around a 18-20% chance
Is that a “clear favourite” or just “favourite” I’ll leave you to decide!
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 9, 2024 13:24:48 GMT
So clear favourite it is then
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Post by andrewbrown on Jul 9, 2024 20:44:57 GMT
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 9, 2024 22:55:14 GMT
Much as I don't much like her, she was dead right on every point though. Sunak seems to have a complete mental breakdown in the last months following on from a moral breakdown in 2023. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Jul 10, 2024 6:55:36 GMT
She said Suella Braverman was having a public breakdown, not Rishi Sunak.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 10, 2024 9:39:04 GMT
I was referring to her comments about his failures.
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Post by vinny on Jul 10, 2024 10:58:20 GMT
My bet is Kemi Bad Enoch. They will probably go far right to grab reform voters. Reform are centre right not far right. |
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Post by dappy on Jul 10, 2024 11:24:04 GMT
This really is the most tedious argument Vinny.
Labour are currently Centre-left. Corbyn was left.
One nation Tories are Centre-right. The “populists” and Reform are right.
None of which really matters anyway.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 10, 2024 21:49:44 GMT
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