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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 9:38:12 GMT
This is what o predicted. It will be followed by chaos. Pacifico (on the other site) was citing le pen's success as evidence that PR did allow the establishment to be beaten. The Establishment decides where the coalitions are made, not the people. Btw - I may have been blocked on the other site. I get a blank screen now The other site still seems to work for me so it is not a site issue. And thanks for a certain thread deletion. I regret ever posting it to be honest. Re the French elections. The far right usually prospers at times of political and economic instability, and often takes advantage of an unpopular incumbent centre and divided left. But the French left appear to have broken the habit of a lifetime and united to stop the far right. And if the exit polls are correct they appear to have beaten them back into third place and topped the poll. But no clear majority. Which means that to keep the far right out, the centre and the left will have to work together somehow and compromise. The French however have not got a very good track record when it comes to different political persuasions working together. Might be a rocky road ahead which itself could further boost support for the far right in the medium term.
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Post by Zany on Jul 8, 2024 10:04:58 GMT
This is what o predicted. It will be followed by chaos. Pacifico (on the other site) was citing le pen's success as evidence that PR did allow the establishment to be beaten. The Establishment decides where the coalitions are made, not the people. Btw - I may have been blocked on the other site. I get a blank screen now The other site still seems to work for me so it is not a site issue. And thanks for a certain thread deletion. I regret ever posting it to be honest. Re the French elections. The far right usually prospers at times of political and economic instability, and often takes advantage of an unpopular incumbent centre and divided left. But the French left appear to have broken the habit of a lifetime and united to stop the far right. And if the exit polls are correct they appear to have beaten them back into third place and topped the poll. But no clear majority. Which means that to keep the far right out, the centre and the left will have to work together somehow and compromise. The French however have not got a very good track record when it comes to different political persuasions working together. Might be a rocky road ahead which itself could further boost support for the far right in the medium term. Intractability is certainly a very French thing. Non.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 10:28:41 GMT
Not really. Labour's vote has stayed steady or declined and the Tories, who moved towards the centre, had their vote collapse. There are many theories why voter turn out was small. The most obvious are: 1, Many Tory voters stayed at home, not wishing to vote Labour or Reform. 2, The rest of the Tories split themselves between Libdem and Reform. 2, Labour voters towards the middle left (Me) were happy we weren't going to get a Corbynite government and voted Labour. 3, Many saw the result was going to be a given, so didn't bother to vote. The idea that the Tories had moved too far left is wrong, if they had they would have captured centre left folk like me. (I have voted both Tory and Labour) Reform took 13% of the vote, out of a populace where only 60% voted at all (=8% of voters). There was no huge push to the right, its a fallacy. Fact is the Tories were just crap, corrupt, lying and lazy. People wanted to see government doing something, almost anything is better than watching your country fall apart while your leaders argue among themselves and line their pockets. Struggling to pay your bills while seeing scandal after scandal nicking money and going unpunished. I should point out that whilst Labours support is a mile wide it is only an inch deep. Labour share of the vote only increased from 32 percent in 2019 to about 34 or 35 percent - and didn;t increase at all outside Scotland. Their vote share was 5 percent or more lower than in 2017, and the lower turnout means they got fewer votes overall than they did in 2019 let alone 2017, in spite of their revival in Scotland. The scale of Labour's defeat in 2019 and victory now owes more to the vicissitudes of FPTP than it does to changes in the popularity of Labour. In 2019 the right wing vote was united behind Brexit. In 2024 it was calamitously divided. There are a great many seats where the Reform/Tory vote combined was substantially bigger than Labour's. But Labour's potential vulnerability was signposted by Greens and Independents winning seats from them here and there, and slashing their majorities in numerous other places. One other reason why turnout was so low is that so many people saw little point in voting for either main party and saw little chance of anyone else winning where they lived. Many on the left like me for example did not vote Labour whereas in earlier years we might have done. I voted Green, quite a few didnt vote at all. Another massive factor was anti-Tory tactical voting on a grand scale. Where the Lib Dems were the main challengers to the Tories, many Labour supporters voted Lib Dem to get the Tory out and Labour votes tended to be a lot lower in these seats than last time because of this and is why the Lib Dems got so many seats. But the reverse tended to be true where Labour were the main challengers, with Lib Dem supporters voting tactically for Labour. But as a result of this phenomenon, Labour's vote held up much better and increased in many cases in just the seats they needed it to. But any desire to tactically vote against the Tories tends to gradually diminish once they are no longer in power. If the right gets its act together and unites, the left gets behind the Greens, the Muslim vote continues to be lost, Labour in government proves to be less than a stellar success, and anti-Tory tactical voting becomes much less of a thing, the Labour majority could disappear as radically as it appeared come the next election. Labour strategists need to be mindful of these dangers by trying to keep some of the left on board by addressing such widespread concerns as the housing crisis, tenants' rights, workers' rights and suchlike. These things ought to be possible to address without in any way being far left. And addressing them is central to our economic wellbeing. They also need to get things working again, especially schools, hospitals, GP practices and access to dentists. And they need to try and win back disaffected Muslims by being seen to be more critical of Israel when it's conduct merits this, and being more vocal in support of some sort of Palestinian state would be a good move in that direction. I know that party tribalism will make this a non starter, but if only Labour and Lib Dems would cooperate in their mutual interest both can gain from that. This is kind of unofficially happening already with both parties pretty much not mounting much of a challenge on the ground in each others' main target seats, and the willingness of anti-Tories to vote tactically is doing the rest.. But we still keep seeing seats won by the Tories over the Lib Dems where their majority is smaller than the Labour vote. And vice versa. Lib Dems and Labour fielding candidates against each other frequently results in Tories coming through the middle and winning by a few hundred votes. Voting Lib Dem where only Labour can beat the Tory, or Labour where only the Lib Dem can, is the ultimate wasted vote. Unless like me you support neither in which case your only option is to vote for someone who cant win or not vote at all. But rest assured Zany that in my seat, my Tory MP Johnny Mercer was ousted by the Labour candidate Fred Thomas, without the need for my vote, lol. But my constituency itself highlights the potential future danger for Labour. Because the combined Tory and Reform vote was comfortably larger than Labour's
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Post by Orac on Jul 8, 2024 10:42:26 GMT
This is what o predicted. It will be followed by chaos. Pacifico (on the other site) was citing le pen's success as evidence that PR did allow the establishment to be beaten. The Establishment decides where the coalitions are made, not the people. Btw - I may have been blocked on the other site. I get a blank screen now The other site still seems to work for me so it is not a site issue. And thanks for a certain thread deletion. I regret ever posting it to be honest. Re the French elections. The far right usually prospers at times of political and economic instability, and often takes advantage of an unpopular incumbent centre and divided left. But the French left appear to have broken the habit of a lifetime and united to stop the far right. And if the exit polls are correct they appear to have beaten them back into third place and topped the poll. But no clear majority. Which means that to keep the far right out, the centre and the left will have to work together somehow and compromise. The French however have not got a very good track record when it comes to different political persuasions working together. Might be a rocky road ahead which itself could further boost support for the far right in the medium term. Basically, 'the centre' have given child traffickers and Jihadis political power in order to prevent Immigration being reduced. Chaos will ensue
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 10:52:33 GMT
The other site still seems to work for me so it is not a site issue. And thanks for a certain thread deletion. I regret ever posting it to be honest. Re the French elections. The far right usually prospers at times of political and economic instability, and often takes advantage of an unpopular incumbent centre and divided left. But the French left appear to have broken the habit of a lifetime and united to stop the far right. And if the exit polls are correct they appear to have beaten them back into third place and topped the poll. But no clear majority. Which means that to keep the far right out, the centre and the left will have to work together somehow and compromise. The French however have not got a very good track record when it comes to different political persuasions working together. Might be a rocky road ahead which itself could further boost support for the far right in the medium term. Basically, 'the centre' have given child traffickers and Jihadis political power in order to prevent Immigration being reduced. Chaos will ensue I have the deepest mistrust for your assertion that the French left consists of Jihadists and child traffickers, and strongly suspect that you are basing it upon some measure of support from French Muslims and perhaps one or two bad apples focussed upon by certain sections of the media. Were the French left a bunch of Jihadists and child traffickers, I am pretty certain that far more reliable elements in the media than your good self would be telling us about it - unless you have a conspiracy theory ready to hand to explain why they are not. Your comments have all the hallmarks of a dubious slur.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 8, 2024 10:57:02 GMT
Basically, 'the centre' have given child traffickers and Jihadis political power . . . How do you figure that? Which political parties that won seats there do you suppose are 'child traffickers and Jihadis'
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Post by vinny on Jul 8, 2024 11:26:08 GMT
If you think ten million votes for a party that just two years ago didn't make it past 4.2 million votes constitutes a defeat, I've a bridge to sell you.
This is serious stuff, their vote has more than doubled.
Without a moderate alternative appearing on the scene and fast, they will get into power.
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Post by Orac on Jul 8, 2024 11:30:16 GMT
Basically, 'the centre' have given child traffickers and Jihadis political power . . . How do you figure that? Because the 'hard left' is now sponsored by child traffickers,Jihadis and drug cartels - as is some significant section of 'the center'. Much of the centre doesn't know what it is doing here, but there will be chaos nonetheless Why do you imagine they are so desperate to prevent reductions in immigration?
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 8, 2024 11:33:36 GMT
Because the 'hard left' is now sponsored by child traffickers,Jihadis and drug cartels . . and you have evidence for that? I doubt it.
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Post by Orac on Jul 8, 2024 11:44:55 GMT
Because the 'hard left' is now sponsored by child traffickers,Jihadis and drug cartels . . and you have evidence for that? I doubt it. We can all see the basic form - they were on the streets of Paris celebrating their win - the very same lumps who celebrated the infamous Jew barbecue. These criminal groups have a set of 'interests', which is is why they don't want immigration reduced.
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Post by Zany on Jul 8, 2024 11:47:53 GMT
SRB's post got my thinking. So I've run some figures which I hope will help the conversation.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 8, 2024 11:54:58 GMT
Wrong thread?
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 8, 2024 11:56:56 GMT
and you have evidence for that? I doubt it. We can all see the basic form - they were on the streets of Paris celebrating their win - the very same lumps who celebrated the infamous Jew barbecue. These criminal groups have a set of 'interests', which is is why they don't want immigration reduced. ie you have not a shred of evidence of this supposed sponsorship and worse seem to want to label anyone in France that isn't white as being members of ' child traffickers,Jihadis and drug cartels'
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borgr0
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Post by borgr0 on Jul 8, 2024 11:57:24 GMT
The conspiracies of how the French election was "stolen' are very much doing the rounds on anti-social media. Now I guess we're hearing that the cartels/traffickers and jihadis run En Marche and Les Republicains coalition or something like that.
Not seen any proof any of that is true, but plus ca change
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Post by vinny on Jul 8, 2024 11:58:40 GMT
Can we get back onto the topic of the French election please?
Does anyone think that the result is a very bad result for France and represents a growing problem? I think it most definitely is a bad result and there's a danger of an RM Presidency.
Does anyone disagree with me?
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