Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on May 24, 2024 10:10:18 GMT
Value of trade with it now is far greater than pre referendum, adjusting for inflation so stop complaining. Value of trade then, was declining, as factories closed. Can't run the entire economy on services, there needs to be a bit of variety in our economic output. We were stagnating. BS ^ researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
|
|
|
Post by vinny on May 24, 2024 10:27:00 GMT
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on May 24, 2024 10:56:55 GMT
Nope It wasn't MY document it was a report from the well respeocted parliamentary research body. And they used the corrected figure after all data finally in. Your link used the snapshop early 2016 first look figure released in MArch 2016. Here's the authoratative data: www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/balanceofpaymentsstatisticalbulletintables/current/balanceofpayments2023q4.xlsx And as that's a spreadsheet you'll be able to easily correct it for inflation won't you and see you were wrong. Even better you could use world trading values instead of a devalued currency to pretend exports are booming. Zimbabwe measured in Z$ terms had massively booming exports at the height of its economic collapse but we all knew in real terms they were anything but..
|
|
|
Post by equivocal on May 24, 2024 11:12:59 GMT
Or in Euro's 2015 €286bn 2023 €302Bn €16Bn difference and then allow for inflation over those 8 years. € to pound 2015 £0.78p € to £ 2023 £1.17 Just browsing, so apologies - I think the 2023 rate should be about £0.85. If that's right, it changes the 302bn euro to 416bn.
|
|
|
Post by Zany on May 24, 2024 11:24:32 GMT
The pound was overvalued in 2015 harming our exports. The Bank of England inflation calculator takes everything into consideration. Yes maybe, but your claim of increased export sales is based on that false valuation.
|
|
|
Post by Zany on May 24, 2024 11:30:50 GMT
Or in Euro's 2015 €286bn 2023 €302Bn €16Bn difference and then allow for inflation over those 8 years. € to pound 2015 £0.78p € to £ 2023 £1.17 Just browsing, so apologies - I think the 2023 rate should be about £0.85. If that's right, it changes the 302bn euro to 416bn. My apologies. read this the wrong way round. And I should know better I travel round the EU enough. This is the British Pound (GBP) to Euro (EUR) exchange rate history data page for the year of 2023, covering 365 days of GBP EUR historical data. Best exchange rate: 1.1746 EUR on 11 Jul 2023. Average exchange rate in 2023: 1.1492 EUR. Worst exchange rate: 1.115 EUR on 04 Feb 2023.
|
|
|
Post by vinny on May 24, 2024 11:55:29 GMT
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on May 24, 2024 20:43:26 GMT
. . .It would seem that the pound is overvalued again. With the ever present risk that the more Jihadist Leavers will pull us out of the UK-EU trade deal and plunge us into the abyss yes it may be. Fortunately the overwhelming majority of the electorate knows such people are
|
|
|
Post by vinny on May 26, 2024 5:57:19 GMT
The housing market is overheating again, regardless of whether the pound is or is not overvalued. I think a house price crash is near (especially as there's going to be a snap election) and whatever your feelings about Brexit, the next big recession will not be because we're out of the EU. Housing prices are not in balance and that is driving a cost of living crisis.
Energy prices are still really high too due to the hastily implemented divestment from coal without replacement capacity being built in advance and due to the short sighted world market dash for Russian gas.
You overplay anything inconvenient from Brexit whilst ignoring other factors. When the housing market crashes (and it will, because you cannot have constant growth out of balance with wages), you may look up and realise there's bigger issues.
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on May 26, 2024 9:31:56 GMT
It's not overplaying to do objective comparisons with comparable countries. It's not overplaying to point out the obvious correlation and it's not overplaying to point out the obvious driving mechanisms.
And your use of false stats and misleading selective quotes from the IMF shows you know it. Brexit wasn't a disaster but it was a net loss we could have avoided and there is still the risk the more swivel eyed leavers will drive us to that disaster by killing the UK-Eu deal.
Own it
|
|
|
Post by patman post on May 26, 2024 15:47:44 GMT
In 2002 when euro currency was issued, 1€ was 66 pence. It's now been mostly bobbing along at 80-90 pence for some time. The respective economic strategies of the UK and EU, along with sentiments of currency markets influence the levels, but has the UK or EU performed better...?
Have, Welsh sheep farmers had to undergo export restrictions to the EU, the way shellfish exporters have needed to...?
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jun 12, 2024 12:53:44 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Zany on Jun 12, 2024 15:27:22 GMT
"The rebound in manufacturing activity has gathered pace in June," (June 2021)
|
|
|
Post by vinny on Jun 12, 2024 16:12:44 GMT
I'm more bothered about democracy.
I was talking to SRB in the other place, and using one of his heroes in an argument against his arguments.
Being in a position to force our government to work for us, instead of being in a position as a rule taker for the unelected is preferable to Welsh beef and lamb farmers being happy with the CAP.
We can always chop and change our agricultural policy, subsidise those who need it etcetera, but inside the EU, governed by people with no direct mandate from the voters, the voters had no power to influence policy whatsoever. It was a highly toxic situation and instead of recognising it as Benn did, the modern left sought to demonise anyone and everyone who had a problem with the system as being a "far right racist".
We're not in the EU now, so what would you do regarding our agricultural policy that is different from present policy?
|
|
Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 2,556
Member is Online
|
Post by Steve on Jun 12, 2024 19:15:07 GMT
"The rebound in manufacturing activity has gathered pace in June," (June 2021) Exactly. Vinny clearly hadn't read his own link that was all about recovery from the 2020 lockdowns
|
|