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Post by Orac on Jun 14, 2024 8:16:12 GMT
You seem to misunderstand my point and the reality of the situation. Firstly, the appearance of kebab shops was not because the British people had some unfulfilled yearning for grilled meat and bread, but didn't have the recipe and so decided to import people from the middle east to provide it. Grilled meat and bread probably appeared in the UK sometime shortly after the advent of agriculture - not quite the stone age, but quite a considerable time ago. Kebab shops appeared and replaced fish and chip shops because so many people were imported from the middle east that entire regions of England were effectively ethnically / culturally cleansed and so there was no need for fish and chip shops. My point was - who ordered / needed this transformation? It certainly wasn't the British people There is no shortage of fish and chip shops. kebab shops do better where there is late night traffic because the product is cheaper and that is what the market desires. You are simply carefully selecting a slice in a multi-variant story that suites your sensibilities. There is no reason at all to import millions of middle east people if the best that can be said of them is that they provide kebabs. The fact that this is actually what happens speaks volumes of an ulterior motivation.
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Post by Zany on Jun 14, 2024 8:26:48 GMT
Away from Dappy's island, the ONS has a forecasting tool (link above) based on the projection shown below.
The dependency ratio in 2016 was 305 pensioners to 1,000 working population. The tool, before any user adjustment, shows that by 2042 the 305 moves to 367.. By adjusting net migration I estimated that for each 100,000 increase in net migration the dependency rate (305 or 367) decreases by about 6.
The figure required for net migration to maintain the dependency rate at 305 is therefore a change from the starting figure of 165,000 to 1,165,000.
I don't know how the model works, but if it (the 1.165m) is straight substitution for the 165,000 shown in the spreadsheet, to maintain the dependency ratio an additional 18,000,000 would need to be added to the 2042 projection of 73m, a total of 91,000,000. If the model includes a straight line increase in net migration the figure of 18,000,000 is halved to 9,000,000 or a population of 82m. I can't see either figure being sustainable.
If anyone has the time, perhaps they could check my arithmetic.
I've seen this before, its a little dodgy as it doesn't allow for changing dynamics such as retirement age and retirement wealth. But in principle it demonstrates the issue again. (Though I doubt Dappy will understand it) Q: Is there one available for Dappy's Island? My understanding is that it is a billion squares miles and has a population of 200.
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Post by Zany on Jun 14, 2024 8:30:43 GMT
There is no shortage of fish and chip shops. kebab shops do better where there is late night traffic because the product is cheaper and that is what the market desires. You are simply carefully selecting a slice in a multi-variant story that suites your sensibilities. There is no reason at all to import millions of middle east people if the best that can be said of them is that they provide kebabs. The fact that this is actually what happens speaks volumes of an ulterior motivation. The problem is your stupid assumption that they came here to open kebab shops that the people didn't want. The Kebab shop is successful because it is what people want. And rather than your usual implied ulterior motives. Tell us what they are and give your evidence to support it.
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Post by equivocal on Jun 14, 2024 8:31:34 GMT
Away from Dappy's island, the ONS has a forecasting tool (link above) based on the projection shown below.
The dependency ratio in 2016 was 305 pensioners to 1,000 working population. The tool, before any user adjustment, shows that by 2042 the 305 moves to 367.. By adjusting net migration I estimated that for each 100,000 increase in net migration the dependency rate (305 or 367) decreases by about 6.
The figure required for net migration to maintain the dependency rate at 305 is therefore a change from the starting figure of 165,000 to 1,165,000.
I don't know how the model works, but if it (the 1.165m) is straight substitution for the 165,000 shown in the spreadsheet, to maintain the dependency ratio an additional 18,000,000 would need to be added to the 2042 projection of 73m, a total of 91,000,000. If the model includes a straight line increase in net migration the figure of 18,000,000 is halved to 9,000,000 or a population of 82m. I can't see either figure being sustainable.
If anyone has the time, perhaps they could check my arithmetic.
I've seen this before, its a little dodgy as it doesn't allow for changing dynamics such as retirement age and retirement wealth. But in principle it demonstrates the issue again. (Though I doubt Dappy will understand it) Q: Is there one available for Dappy's Island? My understanding is that it is a billion squares miles and has a population of 200. I'm not sure what is and isn't included. Do you have a link to the assumptions, or have I missed them on the page?
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Post by Orac on Jun 14, 2024 8:48:34 GMT
You are simply carefully selecting a slice in a multi-variant story that suites your sensibilities. There is no reason at all to import millions of middle east people if the best that can be said of them is that they provide kebabs. The fact that this is actually what happens speaks volumes of an ulterior motivation. The problem is your stupid assumption that they came here to open kebab shops that the people didn't want. The Kebab shop is successful because it is what people want. And rather than your usual implied ulterior motives. Tell us what they are and give your evidence to support it. I have to keep re-asserting my point because you seem to want to argue against something else. Here it is for the third time - There is / was no reason at all to import millions of middle east people if the best that can be said of them is that they provide kebabs
I'm arguing against the daft proposition that this forms some kind of grand government strategy to prevent the country failing.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jun 14, 2024 9:20:31 GMT
. . My point was - who ordered / needed this transformation? It certainly wasn't the British people So you suppose this imagined chip shop mass extinction event that didn't happen was nothing to do with customers and what they want to buy. I suggest you take a look at a kebab shop sometime and who is buying from them. Certainly isn't all BAME customers and that in no small part because BAME are a small minority of the UK population.
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Post by Orac on Jun 14, 2024 9:31:18 GMT
. . My point was - who ordered / needed this transformation? It certainly wasn't the British people So you suppose this imagined chip shop mass extinction event that didn't happen was nothing to do with customers and what they want to buy. You seem utterly determined to miss my point. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of grilled meat and bread (as pointed out earlier, something they already had), then they would have said 'no' Everything is a trade-off and nobody wanted that one
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Post by Zany on Jun 14, 2024 9:40:09 GMT
I've seen this before, its a little dodgy as it doesn't allow for changing dynamics such as retirement age and retirement wealth. But in principle it demonstrates the issue again. (Though I doubt Dappy will understand it) Q: Is there one available for Dappy's Island? My understanding is that it is a billion squares miles and has a population of 200. I'm not sure what is and isn't included. Do you have a link to the assumptions, or have I missed them on the page? Fraid knot. I looked it up a while back on a different forum, I just remember it didn't allow for things like the changes we are seeing in who retires and when. And now there is less of a definitive retirement age its even harder to predict. The numbers retiring at 65 are shrinking but the number of people who simply stop working but don't retire is growing. A reflection of the wealth gap I suppose. Those numbers who can afford to stop working early don't effect retirement cost but do effect tax take.
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Post by Zany on Jun 14, 2024 9:48:50 GMT
So you suppose this imagined chip shop mass extinction event that didn't happen was nothing to do with customers and what they want to buy. You seem utterly determined to miss my point. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of grilled meat and bread (as pointed out earlier, something they already had), then they would have said 'no' Everything is a trade-off and nobody wanted that one Well yes its a stupid assumption because they weren't bought here to open kebab shops. If I said I'm buying the weeks shopping to fill the wheelie bin you'd say no!. But then is a stupid idea. The upside of immigration is lower tax as has been discussed endlessly. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of lower tax and nicer cars and holidays, then they would have said ' ??' You see I've asked this on several forums and I never get yes. I get the question dodged as you did here.
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Post by equivocal on Jun 14, 2024 9:56:07 GMT
I'm not sure what is and isn't included. Do you have a link to the assumptions, or have I missed them on the page? Fraid knot. I looked it up a while back on a different forum, I just remember it didn't allow for things like the changes we are seeing in who retires and when. And now there is less of a definitive retirement age its even harder to predict. The numbers retiring at 65 are shrinking but the number of people who simply stop working but don't retire is growing. A reflection of the wealth gap I suppose. Those numbers who can afford to stop working early don't effect retirement cost but do effect tax take. Not to worry. In any event it's pretty clear we can't rely on ever increasing net immigration to finance our old age.
I suspect the state pension will, over time, be subject to some form of means testing. I suspect the plan behind Hunt talking about abolishing NI as a separate tax is based around changes to the State Pension.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jun 14, 2024 10:02:34 GMT
So you suppose this imagined chip shop mass extinction event that didn't happen was nothing to do with customers and what they want to buy. You seem utterly determined to miss my point. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of grilled meat and bread (as pointed out earlier, something they already had), then they would have said 'no' Everything is a trade-off and nobody wanted that one No apologies from me for countering your false anecdotes. And we haven'timported 'millions of Middle East people' so that's another one. Migration Observatory is an organisation against immigration and they say your latest line is nonsense. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/
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Post by Orac on Jun 14, 2024 10:34:32 GMT
You seem utterly determined to miss my point. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of grilled meat and bread (as pointed out earlier, something they already had), then they would have said 'no' Everything is a trade-off and nobody wanted that one No apologies from me for countering your false anecdotes. And we haven'timported 'millions of Middle East people' so that's another one. Migration Observatory is an organisation against immigration and they say your latest line is nonsense. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/Vague as usual. Can you clarify your claim here? Are you saying that millions of people have not moved from the Middle East into the UK?
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Post by montegriffo on Jun 14, 2024 10:43:19 GMT
So you suppose this imagined chip shop mass extinction event that didn't happen was nothing to do with customers and what they want to buy. You seem utterly determined to miss my point. If the British people were asked if they wanted to import millions of Middle East people with the possible 'upside' of grilled meat and bread (as pointed out earlier, something they already had), then they would have said 'no' Everything is a trade-off and nobody wanted that one Kebab shops originated in Germany 50 years ago. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kebab_shop#:~:text=Kebab%20shops%20were%20born%20in,served%20with%20fries%20and%20beer.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jun 14, 2024 11:02:36 GMT
Vague as usual. Can you clarify your claim here? Are you saying that millions of people have not moved from the Middle East into the UK? You think 'we haven'timported 'millions of Middle East people' is vague? Do you really need it explained?
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Post by dappy on Jun 14, 2024 11:22:30 GMT
Away from Dappy's island, the ONS has a forecasting tool (link above) based on the projection shown below.
The dependency ratio in 2016 was 305 pensioners to 1,000 working population. The tool, before any user adjustment, shows that by 2042 the 305 moves to 367.. By adjusting net migration I estimated that for each 100,000 increase in net migration the dependency rate (305 or 367) decreases by about 6.
The figure required for net migration to maintain the dependency rate at 305 is therefore a change from the starting figure of 165,000 to 1,165,000.
I don't know how the model works, but if it (the 1.165m) is straight substitution for the 165,000 shown in the spreadsheet, to maintain the dependency ratio an additional 18,000,000 would need to be added to the 2042 projection of 73m, a total of 91,000,000. If the model includes a straight line increase in net migration the figure of 18,000,000 is halved to 9,000,000 or a population of 82m. I can't see either figure being sustainable.
If anyone has the time, perhaps they could check my arithmetic.
I've seen this before, its a little dodgy as it doesn't allow for changing dynamics such as retirement age and retirement wealth. But in principle it demonstrates the issue again. (Though I doubt Dappy will understand it) Q: Is there one available for Dappy's Island? My understanding is that it is a billion squares miles and has a population of 200. Your rather silly insults are a shame Zany because your analysis confirms the point I was making to you. The proportion of “retired people” compared to working age people is increasing rapidly (even allowing for immigration I believe included in your projections). Even if spend were linear, that would pose major challenges not just for us but for other Western countries but of course we know that health and social care costs increase disproportionately for elder people. Of course no political party and their friends in the media will engage in a hate campaign against elderly people blaming (not without some justification) elderly people for the issues with our collapsing health service, poor public finances and housing issues). So they have to find another fall guy for the masses to blame for all ills - hence the attack on immigrants. Were the increasing elderly population to be in part supported by increased birth rates rather than immigrants , it feels likely that new parents would not be attacked in the same way and instead would be welcomed. In time it may be that AI and automation makes an elderly population more sustainable (albeit not without creating other problems) and anyway after a major hump of current 50s year olds adding to the problem in the next decade, there are less current 40s year olds to retire in the 2040s.
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