Steve
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Post by Steve on May 22, 2024 16:17:18 GMT
Didn't see that coming so soon
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Post by happyhornet on May 22, 2024 17:10:46 GMT
That's the day after my birthday, also got the European championships in July, one hell of a month.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on May 22, 2024 19:10:02 GMT
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Post by montegriffo on May 23, 2024 9:52:44 GMT
Might be worth a small bet on the Tories then. 20-1 is good odds on a 2 horse race and you can never underestimate Labour's ability to shoot themselves in the foot.
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 9:54:39 GMT
I think the polls might narrow a bit and the Tories will probably poll a little better on the day than the worst polling suggests.
But voting patterns in byelections and local elections recently have been throwing up a lot of evidence for widespread anti-Tory tactical voting, as if most voters aside from die hard Tories have decided they want to see the back of them and are prepared to vote for whomever can best defeat them. At least in England. There may also be an anti-SNP factor in Scotland. This means that whilst the Lib Dems might poll nationally only in single figures, they are likely to do far better where they are the main challengers to the Tories and take seats with the help of Labour supporters. Also Labour might poll nationally well below 40 percent but are likely to do much better in just those seats where they are best placed to defeat the Tory.
Anti-Tory tactical voting - if it happens on any significant scale - will doom the Tories much more than overall vote share.
There is precedent for polls to narrow substantially, though, so nothing is guaranteed. Labour almost wiped out a huge Tory poll lead in 2017, and there is of course the John Major Tory victory of 1992. And unseen events can change things radically, as the Falklands War did for Thatcher. And of course Reform and Farage are wild cards. If they challenge the Tories from the right they are likely to damage the Tory vote still further. But if they do a secret deal - which cannot be entirely ruled out - to stand down and back the Tories in return for a right wing agenda after any victory, then that would obviously substantially shore up the Tory vote.
Because whilst many floating voters and centrists and former red wall voters are deserting the Tories for Labour and other moderate parties. the Tory hard core are increasingly leaning towards Reform. Some sort of deal that involves Reform standing down could radically alter Tory fortunes or at least limit the damage sufficiently to make a hung parliament more likely
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 9:57:35 GMT
Might be worth a small bet on the Tories then. 20-1 is good odds on a 2 horse race and you can never underestimate Labour's ability to shoot themselves in the foot. It would certainly provide a nice consolation in the event of a Tory victory. Though I'd much prefer to lose the bet and watch the bastards crumble, lol
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Post by montegriffo on May 23, 2024 10:02:46 GMT
Might be worth a small bet on the Tories then. 20-1 is good odds on a 2 horse race and you can never underestimate Labour's ability to shoot themselves in the foot. It would certainly provide a nice consolation in the event of a Tory victory. Though I'd much prefer to lose the bet and watch the bastards crumble, lol Yeah, a £2 bet could buy me a half decent bottle of port but I'd be happy to lose it.
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 10:04:21 GMT
July 4th is also independence day, the day we regain our freedom from Tory oppression, incompetence, lies, and corruption.
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 10:22:02 GMT
Didn't see that coming so soon I assumed that they would do what all governments seem to do when far behind in the polls.....wait until very late hoping that something turns up. That he has gone so soon is suggestive of something we are not aware of. Could be looming plots to oust him. Could be the imminence of further Tory defections. Could be secret deals with Reform. Whatever it is, I do have the suspicion that there might be more to this timing than meets the eye. Could it simply be that he thinks they might benefit from the fact that it is school summer holidays in Scotland and the European football championships? Perhaps he is hoping for a feelgood factor from success in the latter? If so, past form suggests that this is far from guaranteed, lol. There must be some hidden thinking behind this decision, surely? Or has he just had enough? And 4th July is only two months after the locals. What a waste of money. Why not do the general election on the same day? Would have made more sense and cost a lot less.
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Post by vinny on May 23, 2024 10:40:33 GMT
Didn't see that coming so soon I don't much like the choices, but it's necessary. And the Tories need punishing for their mismanagement of the Covid crisis. I don't like Starmer at all, and he's the wrong man for PM, but it's likely he'll be the next man in charge.
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Post by cartertonian on May 23, 2024 12:35:44 GMT
This presents me with a quandary in my voting intentions.
I happen to live in Rishi Sunak's constituency, and this has been a Tory safe seat for years. However, such is the dissatisfaction with Sunak I do wonder (more in hope than expectation) whether it might be possible to oust him.
The problem is that over the last few elections, the LDs and Labour having been swapping position for second place and ultimately dividing the vote. I normally vote LD (I'm a member) but would vote Labour if I was confident that tactically voting had a chance of unseating Sunak. I guess I'll have to wait and watch the polling and campaigning, and keep my powder dry until the day itself.
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Post by andrewbrown on May 23, 2024 12:44:29 GMT
I'm a bit disappointed that Farage isn't running. Could have given a boost to Reform. Instead he's chickened out to go and help his chum Trump instead.
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Post by andrewbrown on May 23, 2024 12:51:18 GMT
This presents me with a quandary in my voting intentions. I happen to live in Rishi Sunak's constituency, and this has been a Tory safe seat for years. However, such is the dissatisfaction with Sunak I do wonder (more in hope than expectation) whether it might be possible to oust him. The problem is that over the last few elections, the LDs and Labour having been swapping position for second place and ultimately dividing the vote. I normally vote LD (I'm a member) but would vote Labour if I was confident that tactically voting had a chance of unseating Sunak. I guess I'll have to wait and watch the polling and campaigning, and keep my powder dry until the day itself. There's a couple of tactical voting sites floating around, and I'd expect more to pop up. Sites like this: tacticalvote.co.uk/#
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Post by equivocal on May 23, 2024 13:14:35 GMT
This presents me with a quandary in my voting intentions. I happen to live in Rishi Sunak's constituency, and this has been a Tory safe seat for years. However, such is the dissatisfaction with Sunak I do wonder (more in hope than expectation) whether it might be possible to oust him. The problem is that over the last few elections, the LDs and Labour having been swapping position for second place and ultimately dividing the vote. I normally vote LD (I'm a member) but would vote Labour if I was confident that tactically voting had a chance of unseating Sunak. I guess I'll have to wait and watch the polling and campaigning, and keep my powder dry until the day itself. From the little I've seen of Mr Sunak since the announcement, I've formed the opinion that his understanding of how he is perceived is somewhere between confused and delusional.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on May 23, 2024 14:14:34 GMT
This presents me with a quandary in my voting intentions. I happen to live in Rishi Sunak's constituency, and this has been a Tory safe seat for years. However, such is the dissatisfaction with Sunak I do wonder (more in hope than expectation) whether it might be possible to oust him. The problem is that over the last few elections, the LDs and Labour having been swapping position for second place and ultimately dividing the vote. I normally vote LD (I'm a member) but would vote Labour if I was confident that tactically voting had a chance of unseating Sunak. I guess I'll have to wait and watch the polling and campaigning, and keep my powder dry until the day itself. Or you could stand as the Cartertonian party
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