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Post by equivocal on Jul 3, 2024 16:38:21 GMT
Just for fun, shall we have an election prediction competition with the winner having the lowest difference score? I've limited it to 5 parties.
My prediction is:
Lab 410 Con 100 Lib 70 Ref 5 SNP 20
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Post by andrewbrown on Jul 3, 2024 17:32:49 GMT
My prediction is:
Lab 420 Con 111 Lib 57 Ref 4 SNP 18
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 3, 2024 17:56:34 GMT
My prediction of top 5 is:
Lab 380 Con 131 Lib 67 SNP 22 Sinn Fein 8
then DUP 6 Reform 5 SDLP 3 Alliance 2 Green 2
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Post by equivocal on Jul 3, 2024 18:04:00 GMT
My prediction of top 5 is: Lab 380 Con 131 Lib 67 SNP 22 Sinn Fein 8 then DUP 6 Reform 5 SDLP 3 Alliance 2 Green 2 Thanks, Steve
I've just entered your prediction for the five from the op for competition purposes.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 3, 2024 18:07:17 GMT
Ta
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Post by dappy on Jul 3, 2024 18:15:14 GMT
What’s your scoring system please?
I’ve done this on another forum and came up with
Lab 452 con 82 Lib 73 reform 11 SNP 17
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Post by equivocal on Jul 3, 2024 18:25:21 GMT
What’s your scoring system please? I’ve done this on another forum and came up with Lab 452 con 82 Lib 73 reform 11 SNP 17 I thought I'd keep it simple and simply compute the difference between actual and predicted for each party, convert negative to positive and sum. The lowest score being the winner and receiving the Forum's Speaker Prize.
Any thoughts on doing it another way are fine by me.
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Post by montegriffo on Jul 3, 2024 18:39:37 GMT
Lab 430 Con 102 LD 72 SNP 18 Ref 3
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Post by montegriffo on Jul 3, 2024 18:48:58 GMT
If I had to guess based on signs outside houses I'd say the Greens would be on course for about 600 seats. I've not seen many signs but most of those I have seen have been vote Green.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 3, 2024 19:51:23 GMT
Is there a prize for who stays up the latest on election night?
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Post by andrewbrown on Jul 3, 2024 21:46:20 GMT
Is there a prize for who stays up the latest on election night? At Coventry4Europe we're having an all night party. I've warned my team I may do a later shift on Friday...
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 3, 2024 21:59:11 GMT
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Post by montegriffo on Jul 3, 2024 23:50:28 GMT
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Post by aristaeus on Jul 4, 2024 16:50:38 GMT
I think Labour will get a 206 seat majority.
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Post by vinny on Jul 4, 2024 17:00:34 GMT
I think Labour will get in with an unhealthy majority but not an incredibly large number of votes. In the not too distant future, most people will gently grumble about them. But after partygate, it'll be a long time before we get another Conservative government, Reform can expect 4-5 million votes resulting in a small number of seats whereas the Lib Dems will get about 3 million votes and about 50 seats.
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