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Post by aristaeus on Jul 5, 2024 7:22:53 GMT
Labour's share of the vote circa 35%
Labour's share of the vote in 2019 32%
Labour's share of the vote in 2017 40%
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Post by Zany on Jul 5, 2024 7:23:22 GMT
Liz Truss kicked out! Rees-Smug kicked out! Morduent kicked out! LIz Truss claiming she lost her seat to Labour because they didn't give enough tax cuts. I mean we all know people vote Labour for tax cuts. Talk about out of touch.
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Post by vinny on Jul 5, 2024 8:09:07 GMT
Moment of the night for me. Jacob Rees Mogg losing his seat. And Liam Fox. Brexit trumpeters. You haven't looked at why. Reform split their vote....
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Post by vinny on Jul 5, 2024 8:17:57 GMT
Labour's share of the vote circa 35% Labour's share of the vote in 2019 32% Labour's share of the vote in 2017 40% Labour's actual vote 2019 10,269,051 Labour's actual vote 2024 (provisionally) 9,650,254.
Doesn't bode well for the future.
There's only one General Election since 1997 in which Labour's vote went up instead of down. 2017 and Labour got 12,877,918 votes.
They've done slightly better in terms of votes, than Ed Miliband did. He got 9,347,324 in 2015.
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Steve
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Post by Steve on Jul 5, 2024 8:49:17 GMT
Truss losing and Hunt surviving should give the Tory membership a message - but they won't want to see it
Labour only getting 1/3 of the vote and Reform getting 1/7 should give Labour membership a message - but they won't want to see it either
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Post by montegriffo on Jul 5, 2024 9:51:57 GMT
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Post by equivocal on Jul 5, 2024 10:02:49 GMT
Truss losing and Hunt surviving should give the Tory membership a message - but they won't want to see it Labour only getting 1/3 of the vote and Reform getting 1/7 should give Labour membership a message - but they won't want to see it either Fair point, but I think there are a few Conservative MPs who probably owe their seats to the pollsters.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 11:22:07 GMT
Labour's share of the vote circa 35% Labour's share of the vote in 2019 32% Labour's share of the vote in 2017 40% How well or badly a party does in terms of seats often has at least as much to do with the iniquities of FPTP as it does with vote share. As you point out Labour's vote share is only 3 percent higher than in 2019, which was hailed as a disastrous result, yet now delivers a massive majority. And it has done so with a 5 percent lower vote share than Corbyn got in 2017. That a party can get a massive landslide with little more than a third of the vote makes a mockery of our voting system, as does the Lib Dems getting 50 or 60 seats with a much smaller vote share than Reform who only got 4 or so. What all this demonstrates is that our voting system itself is not fit for purpose. Labour's huge victory was gifted to them by Reform and the Tories splitting the right wing vote. The reverse happened in 2019 when Farage backed the Tories, a fact which few made much of but which massively contributed to the scale of Labour's defeat. Just as the split vote this time has massively contributed to the scale of their victory. In terms of actual Labour vote share there isn't actually a huge difference between the two elections. Voter turnout is massively down though, so in spite of getting a 3 percent higher vote share Labour might well have actually got fewer votes than in 2019. Not sure about that one because I have no time to check out such stats due to work beckoning, but it certainly strikes me as highly possible. Two key factors are worth bearing in mind, the first of which is that much lower turnout means an awful lot of people who had no more time for the Tories had no trust in anyone else either. The second factor is that many of Labour's wins were due to the effective split of the right wing vote between Reform and the Tories. I noticed for example with the very first result when Ian Lavery was re-elected in a supposedly safe Labour seat by a decent margin - and where Reform beat the Tories into second place - the combined Reform/Tory vote was only about 1000 less than Ian Lavery got. So a combination of voter mistrust for Labour as well as the Tories and the potential threat of the right wing vote recombining into a single force, could both undo Labour's large majority next time, and deliver a right wing government. Now that Labour has power it's only way of diminishing such threats is to perform well enough in government, competently and honestly enough, and actually make things better for the struggling millions without tanking the economy, whilst at the same time fixing broken Britain without putting taxes through the roof in a way that is damaging or deeply unpopular. And boosting growth which must be a central part of it. If Labour can pull that off they may well retain or even increase their popularity and encourage more stay at homes to vote for them. But all that is a very tough ask to say the least. But at least in government Labour has the power to do things that can either make things better or make things worse, so to some extent it's destiny is in it's own hands now. Never a massive fan of Starmer and the centrists myself, I will not be critical for the sake of it but will post honestly about whatever the new government does, good or bad. I will give it a fair chance and praise anything I think is good whilst reserving the right to be critical of anything which I believe isn't
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Post by vinny on Jul 5, 2024 11:43:35 GMT
Labour are our government now and they better try to do a good job, or we'll kick their arses next election.
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Post by Zany on Jul 5, 2024 16:31:12 GMT
Moment of the night for me. Jacob Rees Mogg losing his seat. And Liam Fox. Brexit trumpeters. You haven't looked at why. Reform split their vote.... Correct.
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Post by Zany on Jul 5, 2024 16:34:51 GMT
Labour's share of the vote circa 35% Labour's share of the vote in 2019 32% Labour's share of the vote in 2017 40% Labour's actual vote 2019 10,269,051 Labour's actual vote 2024 (provisionally) 9,650,254.
Doesn't bode well for the future.
There's only one General Election since 1997 in which Labour's vote went up instead of down. 2017 and Labour got 12,877,918 votes.
They've done slightly better in terms of votes, than Ed Miliband did. He got 9,347,324 in 2015.
Bodes worse for the Tories and Reform. But I was expected a low turn out. Many Tory voters would sit on their hands and Labour were sparse in their claims. They knew they would win so no need to make difficult promises. I look forward to any change, that's what most people want at the moment.
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Post by equivocal on Jul 5, 2024 17:45:31 GMT
With only Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire left to declare and that, being between the LibDems and the SNP, will not effect the result of our prediction competition. The result:
Equivocal 35 AndrewB 42 Monte 49 Steve 59 Dappy 95
Subject to any objection, I declare myself provisional winner of the Forum Speaker's Sleeper's Prize.
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Post by montegriffo on Jul 5, 2024 21:00:35 GMT
Luckily enough that bench is free now.
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Post by Zany on Jul 5, 2024 21:30:44 GMT
Luckily enough that bench is free now. Yes siree.
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Post by andrewbrown on Jul 5, 2024 21:31:48 GMT
Luckily enough that bench is free now. Think I'd cleanse it first...
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