Steve
Hero Protagonist
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Post by Steve on May 4, 2024 17:51:54 GMT
It seems so though for many it appears to be on the basis of the Tories not being Tory enough, hence the large vote for Reform Oh god, I remember my dad voted for Brexit to stop the Germans invading. So sad.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 20:38:31 GMT
Not sure SRB’s ward , if I have guessed it correctly, is natural Tory territory in truth. The media is keen to trumpet Reform. Worth noting that of 2500 seats declared, they have won ………… 2. Don’t be takin in by the hype about their level of support. Actually you have probably guessed wrong since for most of the 27 years I have lived in the ward it has been a Tory/Labour marginal. Amnd it is not the number of seats they win which is significant. They were never likely to win very much. It is the damage they do to the Tory vote wherein lays their significance. Starmer probably loves the fact that they are there stealing votes from the Tories whilst winning next to nothing themselves.
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Post by Zany on May 5, 2024 7:44:26 GMT
Not sure SRB’s ward , if I have guessed it correctly, is natural Tory territory in truth. The media is keen to trumpet Reform. Worth noting that of 2500 seats declared, they have won ………… 2. Don’t be takin in by the hype about their level of support. Actually you have probably guessed wrong since for most of the 27 years I have lived in the ward it has been a Tory/Labour marginal. Amnd it is not the number of seats they win which is significant. They were never likely to win very much. It is the damage they do to the Tory vote wherein lays their significance. Starmer probably loves the fact that they are there stealing votes from the Tories whilst winning next to nothing themselves. If Labour started winning votes from Reform supporters I would be very worried.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2024 7:54:49 GMT
Actually you have probably guessed wrong since for most of the 27 years I have lived in the ward it has been a Tory/Labour marginal. Amnd it is not the number of seats they win which is significant. They were never likely to win very much. It is the damage they do to the Tory vote wherein lays their significance. Starmer probably loves the fact that they are there stealing votes from the Tories whilst winning next to nothing themselves. If Labour started winning votes from Reform supporters I would be very worried. If they did they would certainly be losing far more votes elsewhere as a consequence. Labour is almost certainly happy with a situation where Reform - as a bunch of right wing loons - are mostly just damaging the Tory vote.
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Post by Zany on May 5, 2024 7:59:00 GMT
If Labour started winning votes from Reform supporters I would be very worried. If they did they would certainly be losing far more votes elsewhere as a consequence. Labour is almost certainly happy with a situation where Reform - as a bunch of right wing loons - are mostly just damaging the Tory vote. Indeed, if for no other reason than it demonstrates the divide between these Tory voters and Labour under Sir Kier.
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Post by happyhornet on May 5, 2024 10:26:08 GMT
Actually you have probably guessed wrong since for most of the 27 years I have lived in the ward it has been a Tory/Labour marginal. Amnd it is not the number of seats they win which is significant. They were never likely to win very much. It is the damage they do to the Tory vote wherein lays their significance. Starmer probably loves the fact that they are there stealing votes from the Tories whilst winning next to nothing themselves. If Labour started winning votes from Reform supporters I would be very worried. Indeed, Reform secured a whopping 2 council seats. Adopt Reform policies get reform results.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2024 11:51:16 GMT
If Labour started winning votes from Reform supporters I would be very worried. Indeed, Reform secured a whopping 2 council seats. Adopt Reform policies get reform results. In the short term all they are ever going to do is damage the Tory vote whilst winning little or nothing themselves. But I fear their strategy is a longer term one, seeking to drag the Tory party itself in their direction to prevent the haemorrhage of right wing votes. The Tories would be making a grave long term strategic error if they did this, though. Because the ultra right wing, climate change denialists attracted by Reform are mostly elderly, and their numbers are destined to diminish sharply over time for obvious reasons. Reform however repulses more than it attracts most voters of working age, and particular those who tend to be floating voters, at least some of whom need to be won over to have any hope of winning an election. So if Reform succeeds in dragging the Tories to the right it will very much be a Pyrrhic victory for them because it can only make the Tories more unelectable. If Starmer believes in God, he must surely think that He must be a Labour supporter right now, lol. Starmer surely could not have wished for a better political alignment, the only real fly in the ointment for him being the sharp decline in support for Labour amongst Muslim voters at the moment.
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Post by andrewbrown on May 5, 2024 22:51:01 GMT
The Muslim independent vote is equally a threat to Labour too. Here in the West Midlands Mayoral Election, the independent candidate secured 69,000 votes, 42,000 of which were in Birmingham, twice as many as Reform took from the Tories. Labour won by just 1508.
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Post by totheleft on May 8, 2024 23:38:59 GMT
The Muslim independent vote is equally a threat to Labour too. Here in the West Midlands Mayoral Election, the independent candidate secured 69,000 votes, 42,000 of which were in Birmingham, twice as many as Reform took from the Tories. Labour won by just 1508. Yes Galloway party took 2 seats in the Rochdale council election. Of labour one of them my ward . But in the Bigger picture think the Muslim vote won't effect that much given the GE.
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Post by andrewbrown on May 9, 2024 6:59:31 GMT
I'm not sure. There's a lot of real anger out there, Labour have a lot of work to convince them.
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Post by Zany on May 9, 2024 8:33:19 GMT
I'm not sure. There's a lot of real anger out there, Labour have a lot of work to convince them. Question is: When it comes to it are they going to risk letting the Tories gain seats. Ok if your convinced the seat will go to the Greens etc, but that's rarely the case. I don't think Muslims are less canny than the rest of us.
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,365
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Post by Steve on May 9, 2024 10:28:33 GMT
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Post by Zany on May 9, 2024 14:31:53 GMT
I wonder what irreversible damage Netanyahu has done to Israel. I suspect many Americans were already struggling with Israel's land grabbing in the West bank.
Now Nete has really revealed his hatred of Arabs and Muslims. How long before Judaism starts to be spoken about as many do Islam, as intolerant and violent.
I hope they can row back from this.
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Steve
Hero Protagonist
Posts: 3,365
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Post by Steve on May 9, 2024 16:56:33 GMT
I hope so too but so much damage has been done, so much polarising of viewpoints.
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Post by vinny on May 14, 2024 11:48:28 GMT
The Tories are the ones who partied whilst the nation had Covid. They've had 14 years in office. They've run out of steam.
The thing is, Labour are not a very inspiring alternative and I don't think they've learned from their past mistakes.
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