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Post by totheleft on Apr 30, 2024 4:08:02 GMT
just like to say a big thank you to the People who are going to vote reform.
Thank you for securing a Labour Marjority.
Reform can cost Tories more than 100 seats
By Prof Richard Rose, 2 April 2024
If the Reform Party holds its twelve percent support, it won't win any seats at the forthcoming general election. However, because nine-tenths of Reform support is drawn from former Conservative voters, this will deliver more than 100 Tory seats to the Labour Party.
The current halving of Tory support from 2019 is principally due to defections to Reform rather than a switch to Labour, according to YouGov. For every ex-Tory who reports switching to Labour almost three report moving further to the right to endorse Reform. If this rate of defection is maintained at the general election, the Tories will win only 90 seats, their worst showing ever.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2024 12:02:22 GMT
There remains the factor of shy Tories who dont show up in the polling because they say they are undecided, or wont vote at all or will vote for something else but who have every intention on the day of voting Tory. The number of shy Tories tends to be larger at times of acute Tory unpopularity.
Plus there is the fact that many who claim to be intending to vote Reform are saying so now because words cost nothing and as such are a free hit. But more than a few of them will have figured out the same thing as the above polling. That voting Reform only helps Labour. And will in consequence vote Tory on the day.
So support for Reform in actual votes cast is likely to be quite a bit lower than current polling suggests, and the Tory vote a fair bit bigger than these worst case scenarios for them. However, both factors are highly unlikely to be enough to save the Tories. The broad masses seem to have turned decisively against them.
All that seems to be in play in reality is the size of Labour's majority. My own hope for a hung parliament is unlikely to be fulfilled, especially with the tide north of the border seemingly turning against the SNP somewhat, to Labour's likely advantage. However it is a hope I cling to which is yet another reason why I won't be giving Labour my vote.
The local elections this week could be very interesting. Many use these as a free hit, so the Reform vote might do much better than in a general election, which could trigger mass panic in the Tory party. Let's get the popcorn ready. It could be a very entertaining show, lol
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Post by andrewbrown on Apr 30, 2024 13:35:11 GMT
There remains the factor of shy Tories who dont show up in the polling because they say they are undecided, or wont vote at all or will vote for something else but who have every intention on the day of voting Tory. The number of shy Tories tends to be larger at times of acute Tory unpopularity. Plus there is the fact that many who claim to be intending to vote Reform are saying so now because words cost nothing and as such are a free hit. But more than a few of them will have figured out the same thing as the above polling. That voting Reform only helps Labour. And will in consequence vote Tory on the day. So support for Reform in actual votes cast is likely to be quite a bit lower than current polling suggests, and the Tory vote a fair bit bigger than these worst case scenarios for them. However, both factors are highly unlikely to be enough to save the Tories. The broad masses seem to have turned decisively against them. All that seems to be in play in reality is the size of Labour's majority. My own hope for a hung parliament is unlikely to be fulfilled, especially with the tide north of the border seemingly turning against the SNP somewhat, to Labour's likely advantage. However it is a hope I cling to which is yet another reason why I won't be giving Labour my vote. The local elections this week could be very interesting. Many use these as a free hit, so the Reform vote might do much better than in a general election, which could trigger mass panic in the Tory party. Let's get the popcorn ready. It could be a very entertaining show, lol Most of what you say is correct, however Reform aren't running that many candidates in the local elections. I think the best that the Tories can hope for is to hold on to the Mayoralty posts in Teesside and West Midlands. Andy Street here is pretty much neck and neck with Labour, he's done some good stuff (like getting Coventry City back to the Ricoh) and is distancing himself from the party. I don't know much about Teesside, but I hear Ben Houchen is popular after resurrecting the local airport. |
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Post by dappy on Apr 30, 2024 15:53:22 GMT
On the face of it, it seems Street is a very effective mayor. It would be a shame if he loses just because he wears the wrong badge.
Houchen was a Tory poster boy for a while but his brand seems to be badly tainted by some pretty dodgy financial goings on in a large waterfront project. Teesside airport has a handful of holiday flights plus 2-3 a day flights to Amsterdam designed no doubt to connect to the world but which don’t really work in practice. I expect he will lose - not sure his loss will be end of world.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2024 16:23:00 GMT
There remains the factor of shy Tories who dont show up in the polling because they say they are undecided, or wont vote at all or will vote for something else but who have every intention on the day of voting Tory. The number of shy Tories tends to be larger at times of acute Tory unpopularity. Plus there is the fact that many who claim to be intending to vote Reform are saying so now because words cost nothing and as such are a free hit. But more than a few of them will have figured out the same thing as the above polling. That voting Reform only helps Labour. And will in consequence vote Tory on the day. So support for Reform in actual votes cast is likely to be quite a bit lower than current polling suggests, and the Tory vote a fair bit bigger than these worst case scenarios for them. However, both factors are highly unlikely to be enough to save the Tories. The broad masses seem to have turned decisively against them. All that seems to be in play in reality is the size of Labour's majority. My own hope for a hung parliament is unlikely to be fulfilled, especially with the tide north of the border seemingly turning against the SNP somewhat, to Labour's likely advantage. However it is a hope I cling to which is yet another reason why I won't be giving Labour my vote. The local elections this week could be very interesting. Many use these as a free hit, so the Reform vote might do much better than in a general election, which could trigger mass panic in the Tory party. Let's get the popcorn ready. It could be a very entertaining show, lol Most of what you say is correct, however Reform aren't running that many candidates in the local elections. I think the best that the Tories can hope for is to hold on to the Mayoralty posts in Teesside and West Midlands. Andy Street here is pretty much neck and neck with Labour, he's done some good stuff (like getting Coventry City back to the Ricoh) and is distancing himself from the party. I don't know much about Teesside, but I hear Ben Houchen is popular after resurrecting the local airport. Reform might well have figured out that their strongest support comes from right leaning retirees, so are perhaps focussing their efforts in wards with a high proportion of these. My ward in Plymouth has a much higher than average pensioner population with very few students. A couple of decades back 600 people - a lot for a ward election - voted BNP out here. Needless to say, Reform is standing a candidate in my ward because there are many types who might go for them, though the effect will be mostly to steal votes from the Tories making it almost certain that Labour will win here. I can think of other wards in my city which are much closer to the university that have a much smaller density of retirees but many more students. It is notable that the main challenge to the status quo parties in these wards tends to come from the left. In my ward the challenge is more likely to come from twonks like reform. |
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Post by andrewbrown on Apr 30, 2024 16:35:14 GMT
On the face of it, it seems Street is a very effective mayor. It would be a shame if he loses just because he wears the wrong badge. Houchen was a Tory poster boy for a while but his brand seems to be badly tainted by some pretty dodgy financial goings on in a large waterfront project. Teesside airport has a handful of holiday flights plus 2-3 a day flights to Amsterdam designed no doubt to connect to the world but which don’t really work in practice. I expect he will lose - not sure his loss will be end of world. According to the latest poll, Ben Houchen is still ahead. |
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Post by dappy on May 1, 2024 9:36:50 GMT
Fair enough Andrew. The people of the North East should have a far better picture than me on the performance of Houchen. I hope they collectively base their judgement on the quality of the candidates not the colour of their rosette.
In theory tomorrow I am supposed to choose a Police Commissioner. There is a candidate from each of the parties. I am vaguely aware of the incumbent (Tory). I know nothing of the other two. How can I objectively judge? So I feel I have no choice but to abstain.
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Post by dappy on May 1, 2024 9:45:50 GMT
Most of what you say is correct, however Reform aren't running that many candidates in the local elections. I think the best that the Tories can hope for is to hold on to the Mayoralty posts in Teesside and West Midlands. Andy Street here is pretty much neck and neck with Labour, he's done some good stuff (like getting Coventry City back to the Ricoh) and is distancing himself from the party. I don't know much about Teesside, but I hear Ben Houchen is popular after resurrecting the local airport. Reform might well have figured out that their strongest support comes from right leaning retirees, so are perhaps focussing their efforts in wards with a high proportion of these. My ward in Plymouth has a much higher than average pensioner population with very few students. A couple of decades back 600 people - a lot for a ward election - voted BNP out here. Needless to say, Reform is standing a candidate in my ward because there are many types who might go for them, though the effect will be mostly to steal votes from the Tories making it almost certain that Labour will win here. I can think of other wards in my city which are much closer to the university that have a much smaller density of retirees but many more students. It is notable that the main challenge to the status quo parties in these wards tends to come from the left. In my ward the challenge is more likely to come from twonks like reform. May I ask which ward is yours SRB. Have to say I thought you lived over the water in jam first land. Honestly I would be surprised if Labour don’t have a large majority on Friday and would be surprised if there were any Reform councillors. Hopefully then they can finally conclude the airport nonsense and maybe use the land to expand the hospital and Marjons. |
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2024 13:39:14 GMT
Reform might well have figured out that their strongest support comes from right leaning retirees, so are perhaps focussing their efforts in wards with a high proportion of these. My ward in Plymouth has a much higher than average pensioner population with very few students. A couple of decades back 600 people - a lot for a ward election - voted BNP out here. Needless to say, Reform is standing a candidate in my ward because there are many types who might go for them, though the effect will be mostly to steal votes from the Tories making it almost certain that Labour will win here. I can think of other wards in my city which are much closer to the university that have a much smaller density of retirees but many more students. It is notable that the main challenge to the status quo parties in these wards tends to come from the left. In my ward the challenge is more likely to come from twonks like reform. May I ask which ward is yours SRB. Have to say I thought you lived over the water in jam first land. Honestly I would be surprised if Labour don’t have a large majority on Friday and would be surprised if there were any Reform councillors. Hopefully then they can finally conclude the airport nonsense and maybe use the land to expand the hospital and Marjons. I value my anonymity on a forum like this, and have probably given away far too much personal information already. If I go public with the actual ward I am living in it potentially makes me too readily identifiable to former party comrades and political opponents. There is a limit upon how much I am willing to compromise my anonymity, and naming my ward would cross that limit. I suspect that nationwide Reform will win few councillors, if any, but I am not sufficiently knowledgeable about the state of play on the ground at a local level anywhere else to say anything with certainty on that. I do though doubt very much that Reform will win any council seats here in Plymouth. If they do it is likely to be in wards that are staunchly Tory on a very poor turnout. In my ward they are likely only to damage the Tory vote, gifting us a Labour councillor. Without naming my ward I will tell you if this prediction has proven accurate or not in a couple of days' time. |
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Post by dappy on May 1, 2024 14:49:13 GMT
That’s fair mate. It was only out of interest as I live a few miles out of Plymouth on Dartmoor.
It seems clear that you live in cream first land but work in jam first land and hence are plainly one of the good guys ….. In my head I had it the other way round previously . Either way none of my business.
We’ll see what Friday brings. I think here Labour will win virtually every seat being contested. Again whether that is a good thing or not I’m not sure.
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 10:31:25 GMT
Well as I predicted Labour romped home in my ward with over 1700 votes, the Tories only getting a bit over 600, whilst Reform got over 500, votes mostly removed from the Tories. More progressive candidates came nowhere, none of them polling into three figures. Though in other parts of the city they polled very well, with two Greens actually winning. Also several independents.
My ward has an over predominance of reactionary retirees and a shortage of young people whilst in some other wards the reverse is the case. And it shows up in the voting tallies.
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Post by Zany on May 4, 2024 7:48:33 GMT
Well as I predicted Labour romped home in my ward with over 1700 votes, the Tories only getting a bit over 600, whilst Reform got over 500, votes mostly removed from the Tories. More progressive candidates came nowhere, none of them polling into three figures. Though in other parts of the city they polled very well, with two Greens actually winning. Also several independents. My ward has an over predominance of reactionary retirees and a shortage of young people whilst in some other wards the reverse is the case. And it shows up in the voting tallies. You'd expect a Tory win in a high retiree area. Have even the pensioners had enough of these Tories? |
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 8:21:54 GMT
Well as I predicted Labour romped home in my ward with over 1700 votes, the Tories only getting a bit over 600, whilst Reform got over 500, votes mostly removed from the Tories. More progressive candidates came nowhere, none of them polling into three figures. Though in other parts of the city they polled very well, with two Greens actually winning. Also several independents. My ward has an over predominance of reactionary retirees and a shortage of young people whilst in some other wards the reverse is the case. And it shows up in the voting tallies. You'd expect a Tory win in a high retiree area. Have even the pensioners had enough of these Tories? It seems so though for many it appears to be on the basis of the Tories not being Tory enough, hence the large vote for Reform |
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Post by dappy on May 4, 2024 8:34:47 GMT
Not sure SRB’s ward , if I have guessed it correctly, is natural Tory territory in truth.
The media is keen to trumpet Reform. Worth noting that of 2500 seats declared, they have won ………… 2. Don’t be takin in by the hype about their level of support.
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Post by Zany on May 4, 2024 17:03:14 GMT
You'd expect a Tory win in a high retiree area. Have even the pensioners had enough of these Tories? It seems so though for many it appears to be on the basis of the Tories not being Tory enough, hence the large vote for Reform Oh god, I remember my dad voted for Brexit to stop the Germans invading. So sad. |
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