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Polling
Apr 2, 2024 3:13:26 GMT
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Post by andrewbrown on Apr 2, 2024 3:13:26 GMT
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Post by sheepy on Apr 2, 2024 7:19:59 GMT
The British government has become British Leyland, turning out badly designed policies, the management is about to change, but will just be the same management because they will tell you anything to change the boardroom staff and put themselves in charge, half the staff although not on strike stay at home, the Comsumer is meant to put with shoddy workmanship with no recourse, a collapse is imminent.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2024 14:15:44 GMT
I do think that two factors are in play which will diminish actual voting for Reform and cause the Tories to do less badly than the worst polling suggests.
Firstly, there has long been a recognisable factor that becomes much greater at times of Tory unpopularity, of so-called "shy Tories". These tend to be people who refuse to respond to pollsters or who tell them they don't know who they will vote for but who actually tend to vote Tory on the day. These Tory voters therefore tend not to show up in polling.
The other factor which I suspect is occurring is that natural Tory voters when asked by pollsters are saying that they intend to vote for Reform instead just to send a message. But many of them on the day, faced with a voting system that makes a vote for Reform more likely to result in a Labour candidate winning, will vote Tory anyway.
I still think that it is highly likely that the Tories will do disastrously badly, and that Labour will win, but the Tories will not do quite as badly, nor Labour nearly so well, as the current polling suggests
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Polling
Apr 2, 2024 15:05:12 GMT
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Post by andrewbrown on Apr 2, 2024 15:05:12 GMT
You're definitely correct about shy Tories (I think that's what you meant! 😂) and it does seem to be a regular factor. Only exception seemed to be 2017 when Theresa May surprisingly lost her majority. I suspect a lot of those Reform polling will revert back to the Tories, like you say, including those shouty types in other places.
Another factor may be the local elections, be interesting to see how Reform perform in May.
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Post by sheepy on Apr 2, 2024 17:08:27 GMT
Want to take a bet the turnout will be dire anyway?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2024 17:27:00 GMT
You're definitely correct about shy Tories (I think that's what you meant! 😂) and it does seem to be a regular factor. Only exception seemed to be 2017 when Theresa May surprisingly lost her majority. I suspect a lot of those Reform polling will revert back to the Tories, like you say, including those shouty types in other places. Another factor may be the local elections, be interesting to see how Reform perform in May. The local election results will indeed be interesting. Turnouts tend to be much lower than in general elections, but support for smaller parties tends to hold up better than it does for the big two, creating more scope for upsets. Additionally, many use local elections as a vehicle for protest voting. So the results could potentially be very interesting indeed. If Reform does exceptionally well for a smaller party at the expense of the Tories, this will trigger panic in Tory ranks. Many Tory voters themselves have probably figured that out and might well be inclined to vote Reform for that very reason, hoping to trigger the departure - forced or voluntary - of Sunak as a prelude to a sharp shift to the right. Were I a hard rightist like Red Rackham on the other site, that is exactly what I would do. Whatever happens, it is likely to be very interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2024 17:28:03 GMT
Want to take a bet the turnout will be dire anyway? I do believe turnout will be dire, especially in terms of support for Tories or Labour
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Post by montegriffo on Apr 2, 2024 17:28:23 GMT
Want to take a bet the turnout will be dire anyway? That's the biggest certainty since Verstappen will win this year's F1 Championship.
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Post by montegriffo on Apr 2, 2024 17:46:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2024 23:53:26 GMT
Anything the Daily Fail worries about is not something I am going to give any fucks over.
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Polling
Apr 5, 2024 5:52:04 GMT
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Post by totheleft on Apr 5, 2024 5:52:04 GMT
In reality monte the latest opinion polls Show that since Anderson joined reform. There Showing a 8-12.5% down from 15-16% Reform are Sliping away . With labour wining a landslide victory with over 400 seats . Reform with 0.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2024 10:43:05 GMT
In reality monte the latest opinion polls Show that since Anderson joined reform. There Showing a 8-12.5% down from 15-16% Reform are Sliping away . With labour wining a landslide victory with over 400 seats . Reform with 0. One can never be certain of course but I very much doubt that Reform will win any seats. They are far more likely to help the Tories lose multiple seats to other parties by stealing their voters. Many Tory voters realise this or will come to realise this on election day. So a lot of the support for Reform is Tory voters when asked saying they will vote for Reform to express their discontent, many of whom will actually vote Tory on the day. Then there is the phenomenon of shy Tories not showing up in the polling. I still think it is looking like the Tories are going to do badly, but it is for the above reasons unlikely to be quite as bad as some of the polling is suggesting, and Reform's share of the vote is likely to be substantially lower than their current polling. I still think it likely that Labour will win a substantial majority, possibly a landslide, but probably not quite as massive as polling suggests currently. Support for Labour seems mostly to be based on a growing desire to get the Tories out by voting for anyone that can beat them, which looks like Labour in many places. Very few know much about what Labour will do, and more than a few are aware of broken pledges and constant flip-flopping. So only a minority see Labour as anything more than a necessary lesser evil to get the Tories out. All of which makes Labour's lead dangerously soft , and vulnerable to game changer events. Few see much positive to vote for as many did the 2017 policies. Of course Labour in 2017 were undone by a variety of factors in spite of some appealing policies, not least of which was the powerful public desire to get Brexit done. This automatically played into Tory hands, even more so in 2019, when Starmer was leading the charge to stymie Brexit, whilst Boris specifically promised to cut through all the crap and get it done. Things have changed now, Brexit no longer being anything like the top issue it was. The powerful public desire now is to get the Tories out, which plays into Labour hands,
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Polling
Apr 5, 2024 11:10:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Apr 5, 2024 11:10:27 GMT
I agree with a lot of that SRB. I'd add in about tactical voting too, current polling shows LibDems slightly below 2019 levels, but with probably a fourfold increase in seats. Whereas Reform will get probably a similar number of votes, but I'd hedge a bet on no seats as their votes are more geographically spread. Noone is going to vote tactically for Reform.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2024 9:59:03 GMT
I agree with a lot of that SRB. I'd add in about tactical voting too, current polling shows LibDems slightly below 2019 levels, but with probably a fourfold increase in seats. Whereas Reform will get probably a similar number of votes, but I'd hedge a bet on no seats as their votes are more geographically spread. Noone is going to vote tactically for Reform. It would not surprise me at all if something like that were to happen, which will yet again make a mockery of our voting system which in the longer term is contributing further in the diminishing faith in, and ultimately support for, our democratic system. I suspect that something like half of voters now don't even vote for a party they support but feel obliged to vote for a party they don't really support to keep an even worse bunch out. A situation hardly calculated to generate enthusiasm for the democratic process. Another chunk of the electorate see no point in voting at all because where they live the seat is so safe for one party or another that they know the outcome in advance. Still others feel wholly unrepresented because they are not part of a demographic the parties see much value in appealing to. This is particularly true of younger voters and has been for decades, which goes some way towards explaining why turnout amongst the young has dropped to such shockingly low levels. The worrying thing is that these young people, a large majority of whom feel that our democratic process is not working for them or representing them, are the future of this country, upon whom the survival of democracy itself will in the long run depend. Were I a betting man I would put money on the next election seeing the lowest turnout since before all women had the vote. And it would not surprise me if barely one in five people under 25 voted.
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Post by andrewbrown on Apr 7, 2024 6:57:44 GMT
The behaviour of MPs is as big an issue as the politics. You're right, it totally puts people off. All the braying in parliament and the one line insults instead of proper debate doesn't help either, and the failure to answer questions is a travesty. How do we improve the integrity of our politicians?
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