Former Labour Adviser Claims Indy Is 'Deferred Not Defeated'
Jul 12, 2024 16:26:53 GMT
Amadan likes this
Post by borgr0 on Jul 12, 2024 16:26:53 GMT
A FORMER Labour government adviser has claimed that independence is “deferred rather than defeated” after the results of the General Election.
Michael Clark, who was a foreign office adviser to Robin Cook – foreign secretary under Tony Blair’s government – said the results of July 4 did not seem to suggest that the UK would not “break up in the next 10-20 years”.
.. Clark, who pointed out that although Labour won more seats in Scotland, the main opposition came from pro-independence parties.
“This boast will age badly, I suspect,” Clark said in response to Carmichael’s comments.
..
“Beneath the headline figures, the politics of England and Scotland continued to diverge last week, leading me to conclude that independence has been deferred rather than defeated.
On the surface of it, the results north and south of the border looked strikingly similar. Labour made big gains in seats on similar shares of the vote - 35.3% in Scotland and 34.4% in England.
“However, Labour has never increased its vote share at the end of a full term in office.”
Clark added: “I hope I’m wrong, but experience suggests that this is Labour’s peak for the current political cycle, so we need to consider what the downswing of the cycle will look like.
“Here the figures are stark. In England, the combined Tory/Reform vote was 41.2%, leaving the populist right as by far the most likely focus of serious opposition to Labour when it emerges as a vaguely united force.
“In Scotland, the combined Tory/Reform vote was only 19.7% and the main non-Labour force was a pro-independence block polling 34.3%. With support for independence persisting at much higher rates than that, the likely shape of future opposition to Labour in Scotland seems clear. .. “I still expect the UK to break up in the next 10-20 years.”
Michael Clark, who was a foreign office adviser to Robin Cook – foreign secretary under Tony Blair’s government – said the results of July 4 did not seem to suggest that the UK would not “break up in the next 10-20 years”.
.. Clark, who pointed out that although Labour won more seats in Scotland, the main opposition came from pro-independence parties.
“This boast will age badly, I suspect,” Clark said in response to Carmichael’s comments.
..
“Beneath the headline figures, the politics of England and Scotland continued to diverge last week, leading me to conclude that independence has been deferred rather than defeated.
On the surface of it, the results north and south of the border looked strikingly similar. Labour made big gains in seats on similar shares of the vote - 35.3% in Scotland and 34.4% in England.
“However, Labour has never increased its vote share at the end of a full term in office.”
Clark added: “I hope I’m wrong, but experience suggests that this is Labour’s peak for the current political cycle, so we need to consider what the downswing of the cycle will look like.
“Here the figures are stark. In England, the combined Tory/Reform vote was 41.2%, leaving the populist right as by far the most likely focus of serious opposition to Labour when it emerges as a vaguely united force.
“In Scotland, the combined Tory/Reform vote was only 19.7% and the main non-Labour force was a pro-independence block polling 34.3%. With support for independence persisting at much higher rates than that, the likely shape of future opposition to Labour in Scotland seems clear. .. “I still expect the UK to break up in the next 10-20 years.”
The National
If you're going to play 'jiggle the figures' with the Remain vote in parliament in 2019 and suggest remain won the 2019 vote (they didn't), then others are entitled to do this with the Scottish vote in 2024. A majority of voters supported indy in the 2024 vote, that's a majority so...................