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Post by Zany on Apr 17, 2024 18:16:51 GMT
apologies 275% was the debt to GDP at the end of the war. They increased spending to over 50% borrowing most of it. Yes but much of that spending is reserved for self defence, hence my start question which might have been. How many NATO countries would commit everything they have to a war in a foreign country leaving themselves defenceless. We don't need to start tomorrow either though it would take us a while to gear up as well (how long does it take to train a soldier) The main reason for the step up is to send the right signals. See above. Once again I suggested we borrow not cut. Not just borrow for defence but for the health service and housing. If you repeat this lie about me cutting money for schools and hospitals I shall ignore you. .
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Post by dappy on Apr 18, 2024 8:23:27 GMT
Zany, we seem to be circling a bit, so maybe time to let this rest unless you have anything new to add.
You believe the country can borrow unlimited funds without consequence and hence can spend much more on one area of public spending without consequence on the others. I thin k that is patent nonsense. Our public services are all in crisis. If we can borrow more without consequence, we should do so and adequately fund them plus give the population a citizens income (why not). It simply isn't the real world though sadly.
You believe we need to sacrifice public services in order to "send a signal". Sending a signal is always the last resort when the practical advantages of a policy have been shown to be illusory. Surely a far stronger "signal" has already been sent by the fact that the West has committed a very small part of its military strength to Ukraine yet succeeded in holding the apparently mighty Russia to an advance of 100 miles from its border.
The rest of your arguments seem to lack any coherence whatsoever. You feel like you are desperately hanging on to a conclusion when all the pillars of thought that lead to that conclusion have all been shown to be illusionary and have fallen away.
Lets leave it there.
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Post by Zany on Apr 18, 2024 19:33:29 GMT
Contrary to what you want to believe that is not true. But you are right in that we cannot discuss it further while you make s**t up. I can't help but feel that if I dropped the bit about defence you would think borrowing more for housing and the NHS was very much in the real world and would not be borrowing without consequence. Suddenly those consequences would be both measurable and manageable. Ok.
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Post by dappy on Apr 19, 2024 7:45:34 GMT
Zany, May I just ask you to clarify one point for me. We have covered whether or not there is a need to increase military spending. Others can choose which argument they consider most compelling if they choose to do so.
I am a bit confused about your attitude towards limitations on Government spending. I think I am reading you as saying there are no constraints on public borrowing and hence Government can “borrow” as much as it likes to spend what it likes without any negative consequences. Do I understand you correctly.
If I do, could I ask you to explain why you would stop at 2.5% for defence? Why not “borrow” a bit more and spend 4% on defence plus massively increase spending on schools hospitals and prisons and cut taxes all at the same time?
You haven’t quite understood my position. My position is that there are limits and consequences to borrowing and hence Government has to choose what to spend its limited resources on. Indeed that is the very essence of what politics is. In the world of limited government spending, I am not persuaded that there is a credible threat forcing an increased allocation of the spending pie to “defence” and hence would far rather allocate the maximum possible available funds to schools and hospitals rather than to my mind wasting it on entirely unnecessary military spending.
I hope you see that as a fair question.
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Post by Zany on Apr 19, 2024 8:01:53 GMT
Yep. No of course not. It was you you suggested no restraint to hammer home your point. I never suggested unrestrained. I said the government to relook at their fiscal borrowing rules and borrow a bit more in this time of crises. By example I said that at the end of ww2 our debt to GDP was 275% and we survived that. In other words the country would not implode if debt to GDP rose from a ceiling of 100% to a ceiling of say 120% As I explained at the time the number was just my opinion. but it was an opinion based of what I had read as the suggested amount for each NATO country and the fact that military leaders here are saying our army is not fit for purpose. The U.S spends 3.4%. I perfectly understood your position, but as it was based on your own false premise it was impossible to address sensibly. That false premise was that increasing borrowing on defence and NHS and Schools meant open ended borrowing with no constraint. Possibly, lets see if it was loaded.
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Post by dappy on Apr 19, 2024 8:23:06 GMT
Then I think your logic is flawed Zany.
If there is a maximum amount the Government can borrow (I agree I think there is) then the Government has to make choices whether to borrow up to somewhere around that maximum and what to spend it’s available resources on.
Let’s say the Government currently has resources of 100 sources say 90 from tax and 10 from borrowing and spends 4 on defence and 96 on ( to simplify) health. Let’s say the maximum it can borrow prudently is 12. You want it to instead borrow 12 and spend 5 on defence and 97 on health. I see no need to increase defence spending so prefer to spend 98 on health. So your decision to increase defence spending has resulted in less money being spent on health.
Which was the point I was making.
Is that a fair summation of our difference?
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Post by Zany on Apr 19, 2024 19:07:04 GMT
Then I think your logic is flawed Zany. If there is a maximum amount the Government can borrow (I agree I think there is) then the Government has to make choices whether to borrow up to somewhere around that maximum and what to spend it’s available resources on. Let’s say the Government currently has resources of 100 sources say 90 from tax and 10 from borrowing and spends 4 on defence and 96 on ( to simplify) health. Let’s say the maximum it can borrow prudently is 12. You want it to instead borrow 12 and spend 5 on defence and 97 on health. I see no need to increase defence spending so prefer to spend 98 on health. So your decision to increase defence spending has resulted in less money being spent on health. Which was the point I was making. Is that a fair summation of our difference? Yes. What I get is you want to limit spending on defence by claiming an upper limit which creates this barrier. But what if I make the prudent spending limit 16? Can I then spend the extra 4 on defence without limiting spending on health or do I now need to spend another 4 on health? Sadly the real point I was making was lost in your desire to stop spending on defence. That point was as much about fixing the country as building our defence. Lets try leaving defence out of the conversation altogether for a couple of posts. Do you agree the country is in a hell of a mess. List: 1, NHS in bits understaffed and derelict. 2, Climate change costing more to combat every year, whether that be in prevention or dealing with its effects. 3, Schools crumbling and education failing our young. Teachers leaving in droves and being replaced with barely trained people on watered down courses. 4, The roads and infrastructure worse than anyone can remember and even the new wind farms not connected to the national grid. 5, A huge housing shortage driving millions of pounds into the arms of the rich and landed. 6, Chronic depression and anxiety among the young driven by a lack of hope in any future. 7, The economy stalled after Brexit, hit by Covid and crushed by interest rates (Why are the young with mortgages and rents responsible for fixing inflation) Anyway I feel we are in a national emergency not dissimilar to a war. And that to stop it dragging on for decades we should treat it as a similar emergency as ww2 and borrow more to get it fixed. In the hope that a stimulated economy will give hope to the young and make enough money to pay back the debt. In ww2 we borrowed 275% of GDP, I'm not suggesting anywhere near that amount. How does that sound?
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Post by dappy on Apr 19, 2024 22:30:45 GMT
In your penultimate post Zany, you agreed that borrowing could not be unlimited. Now you seem to be questioning the concept that there is a limit. I’m a bit confused to be honest. I hope you are Ok.
Sadly I think there is a limit to how much governments can borrow and within that context I want as much money as possible spent on public services which I agree are in a mess rather than wasted on unnecessary defence spending.
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Post by Zany on Apr 20, 2024 7:37:37 GMT
In your penultimate post Zany, you agreed that borrowing could not be unlimited. Now you seem to be questioning the concept that there is a limit. I’m a bit confused to be honest. I hope you are Ok. Sadly I think there is a limit to how much governments can borrow and within that context I want as much money as possible spent on public services which I agree are in a mess rather than wasted on unnecessary defence spending. So to you a higher limit to your arbitrary one means unlimited? Perhaps you should look up the meaning of the word. That or stop trying so hard to be a clever dick.
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Post by dappy on Apr 20, 2024 10:10:14 GMT
No Zany, as I have explained I am happy to borrow up to the highest prudent borrowing limit but I want all that money spent on public services like schools hospitals prisons etc and not wasted on unnecessary military spending.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2024 10:48:31 GMT
No Zany, as I have explained I am happy to borrow up to the highest prudent borrowing limit but I want all that money spent on public services like schools hospitals prisons etc and not wasted on unnecessary military spending. Unnecessary military spending is only unnecessary until the moment you need it, by which time you discover you lack the weaponry and armed forces you need. We went down that road in the 1930s. If there is a great power throwing it's weight around - and there are potentially two if you include China, which is probably the more dangerous of the two - in a situation where military support from the USA is far from certain due to it's own internal politics, it clearly would be most rash not to recognise the potential dangers. And history tells us that we are far less likely to have to fight wars when we demonstrably have the power to easily win them. At the moment USA support cannot be relied on with any certainty, whilst Europe itself is less than entirely united. There is of course the inherent danger that Putin is waiting for the US electorate to impose a massive defeat on the west by electing Trump, who is more likely based upon his past rhetoric to want to be more friendly with Putin than he is with NATO. At which point the US power behind NATO ceases, and the alliance becomes much weaker. If Trump wins the west could be in big trouble. We need to try and be ready for that. Because the increase in military spending that would be necessary if we found ourselves at war would dwarf the spending increases necessary to deter it.
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Post by Zany on Apr 20, 2024 12:44:59 GMT
No Zany, as I have explained I am happy to borrow up to the highest prudent borrowing limit but I want all that money spent on public services like schools hospitals prisons etc and not wasted on unnecessary military spending. Oh do tell me what is the highest borrowing limit is please. Then we can discuss what gets spent on what. At the end of ww2 it was 275% of gdp. That was one of those wars that doesn't happen and they wasted loads on unnecessary military spending.
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Post by Zany on Apr 20, 2024 12:46:57 GMT
No Zany, as I have explained I am happy to borrow up to the highest prudent borrowing limit but I want all that money spent on public services like schools hospitals prisons etc and not wasted on unnecessary military spending. Unnecessary military spending is only unnecessary until the moment you need it, by which time you discover you lack the weaponry and armed forces you need. We went down that road in the 1930s. If there is a great power throwing it's weight around - and there are potentially two if you include China, which is probably the more dangerous of the two - in a situation where military support from the USA is far from certain due to it's own internal politics, it clearly would be most rash not to recognise the potential dangers. And history tells us that we are far less likely to have to fight wars when we demonstrably have the power to easily win them. At the moment USA support cannot be relied on with any certainty, whilst Europe itself is less than entirely united. There is of course the inherent danger that Putin is waiting for the US electorate to impose a massive defeat on the west by electing Trump, who is more likely based upon his past rhetoric to want to be more friendly with Putin than he is with NATO. At which point the US power behind NATO ceases, and the alliance becomes much weaker. If Trump wins the west could be in big trouble. We need to try and be ready for that. Because the increase in military spending that would be necessary if we found ourselves at war would dwarf the spending increases necessary to deter it. Well said, very good points.
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Post by dappy on Apr 20, 2024 21:51:51 GMT
We have been spending the last five pages establishing that additional military spending is unnecessary SRB. It is telling that your only argument seems to date back to 80 years ago and completely ignore todays reality that Western Europe spends five times as much on the military as Russia and that a committed Russian army has only succeeded in advancing 100 miles against very limited Western involvement.
As for Zany , he seems to angrily deny that government borrowing can be unlimited but at the same time angrily deny that there is a limit. I’m sorry I don’t understand his position.
My position is unchanged. There is no case for additional military spending and all available monies , including from additional borrowing if prudent to do so, should be spent on the likes of schools hospitals and prisons and not wasted on unnecessary military spending.
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Post by Zany on Apr 20, 2024 22:01:27 GMT
By which you mean you alone think its unnecessary. Liar. Gosh that's a surprise, you not budging.
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