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Post by Zany on Apr 13, 2024 9:51:54 GMT
The Western European countries spending the most on “defence” currently outspend Russia 3.5:1. Why do you think we need to spend even more? That depends on what Russia does. They have increased their military budget by nearly 40% since 2020. That budget is nearly all focused on one target, the budget you describe it to cover 35 countries. Do you think NATO members would leave themselves defenceless and throw everything into the pot against Putin?
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Post by dappy on Apr 13, 2024 10:32:25 GMT
If Russia attacked them who else do you dread a threat that needs to be defended against?
Do you think that the lesson ofUkraine where the Ukraine(helped to a limited extent by the West) has stopped the Russians at most 200 miles from their border suggests that Russia is militarily capable of pushing 000s of miles across Europe?
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Post by vinny on Apr 13, 2024 11:04:57 GMT
Re-arming and re-training the Russian military has already begun. Five to ten years time and there's the genuine risk of a shooting war between Russia and NATO unless the regime is defeated in Ukraine.
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Post by Zany on Apr 13, 2024 12:00:00 GMT
If Russia attacked them who else do you dread a threat that needs to be defended against? Do you think that the lesson ofUkraine where the Ukraine(helped to a limited extent by the West) has stopped the Russians at most 200 miles from their border suggests that Russia is militarily capable of pushing 000s of miles across Europe? Russia got caught out by the Wests early resolve. They thought Ukraine would be another Georgia. Now they are gearing up their huge economy to war while calling it defence. This is what Hitler did in the run up to WW2 while we sat smugly and said he couldn't do it and we beat them last time. Few people realise how much of WW2 was almost nothing happening while we caught up and armed ourselves.
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Post by dappy on Apr 13, 2024 12:33:30 GMT
Russia doesn’t have an “enormous” economy Zany. It’s about 25% smaller than the UK alone.
I think you are right that Russia didn’t expect the (limited) Western military involvement in Ukraine. The result was they were halted within 100 miles or so of the Russian border.
Yet you tell me that I should be terrified that they may suddenly roll thousands of miles across Western Europe against a fully committed Western military. It’s hard to understand your logic tbh.
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Post by Zany on Apr 14, 2024 8:30:38 GMT
Russia doesn’t have an “enormous” economy Zany. It’s about 25% smaller than the UK alone. It has enormous resources and a great deal of cash. If you think about it you are implying here that the UK could beat Russia single handed. I'm sure you don't mean that. Indeed, had they expected that they would have geared up as they are now. Yes I do. There is a vast difference between a country allocating a bit of its economic budget to defence and a country gearing up to war. UK's defence spending in 1940 was 46% of GDP. And my question was not "against a fully committed Western military" but against a Western military not fully committed and still only spend 1.5-2% on defence. We were caught with our pants down last time this happened, I'd like to be fully dressed this time.
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Post by dappy on Apr 14, 2024 10:52:56 GMT
Zany With respect I’m not sure you are making a lot of sense. You appear to claim that Russia has an enormous economy with military spending dwarfing that of Western Europe. But that simply isn’t true. Even UK economy alone is bigger than Russia’s - the economies of Western Europe dwarf it. And Russian military spending is about 20% of the Western European countries. Russia has failed to progress more than 100 miles or so into its neighbour. You must surely be aware that it is a much bigger undertaking for any country to seek to invade far from home. Yet you still seem to believe that Russia rolling across Germany and France and wandering through Kent is a serious proposition. Do you think it is possible you have been conned by the hype?
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Post by Zany on Apr 14, 2024 14:19:14 GMT
Zany With respect I’m not sure you are making a lot of sense. You appear to claim that Russia has an enormous economy with military spending dwarfing that of Western Europe. But that simply isn’t true. Even UK economy alone is bigger than Russia’s - the economies of Western Europe dwarf it. And Russian military spending is about 20% of the Western European countries. Russia has failed to progress more than 100 miles or so into its neighbour. You must surely be aware that it is a much bigger undertaking for any country to seek to invade far from home. Yet you still seem to believe that Russia rolling across Germany and France and wandering through Kent is a serious proposition. Do you think it is possible you have been conned by the hype? Let me try and speak clearer. If Putin decided to go for all out war as Hitler did he would increase spending on military hardware by ten fold (As we did in WW2) He could afford to do this by selling some of the huge natural resources Russia has to India etc, I do not think Russia would attack Germany or France, let alone the UK. But its quite possible he might attack Poland or Finland if the West is not prepared and ready to stop him. Us spending 2% of our budget on defence is not IMO being prepared. Particularly if he drove the attack home in a blitzkrieg style with overwhelming force. The bit you seem to miss is the bit where he increases production 10 fold and we don't. That is exactly how Hitler carried out his invasions so successfully, because we all believed that one country (Germany) could never overwhelm the combined countries of the rest of Europe. We caught up and won in the end but at huge cost in lives. I emphasise that I do not think Putin would win in the long run, but he is mad enough to try and if we are not prepared it could cost a lot of lives to push him back from ground gained.
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Post by dappy on Apr 14, 2024 15:01:32 GMT
Blimey Zany. You do seem to be coming over a bit “Dr Strangelove”.
Are you suggesting Russia will start pumping 10 times as much oil and gas to fund this Machiavellian scheme? Or are you suggesting he sells off Oil Wells on Russian soil to India to raise cash?
How much do you suggest we in the UK spend now on “defence”in order to head off this perceived threat to Poland and Finland? What public services do you suggest we cut to fund it (assuming you are not suggesting we sell off the North Sea to Brazil?)
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Post by Zany on Apr 14, 2024 16:27:55 GMT
Blimey Zany. You do seem to be coming over a bit “Dr Strangelove”. Are you suggesting Russia will start pumping 10 times as much oil and gas to fund this Machiavellian scheme? Or are you suggesting he sells off Oil Wells on Russian soil to India to raise cash? I'm suggesting Putin is already squeezing the oligarchs. That "defence" spending in Russia has risen by nearly 150% since the start of the Ukraine war. Do you think Iran has gifted all those missiles and drones to Russia? I am suggesting its what history tells us such tyrants do. Now we get to the nub of it. It would be easy to point to more important things needed, again its what we did when Churchill tried to warn the country before WW2. The measured voices said, it wont happen, he wouldn't dare, you've gone all Dr Strangelove. There are more important things to spend our money on, we're still recovering from WW1. Its all there in our history for us to read and learn. So much much would King Zany spend and how would he fund it. I would increase it to 2.5% across every NATO member, whether they build their own forces or contribute to other members more able to do so. I would fund our increase by borrowing. Its a time of extreme need. We had Covid followed by the effects of Putin's invasion. I think we need to re-write our fiscal rules to deal with a coming emergency. Foot note: At the end of WW2 our debt to GDP was 275% yet the country did not implode and we're still here
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Post by dappy on Apr 14, 2024 22:19:12 GMT
Our public services are a mess Zany. They need money spent on them , as much money as we can realistically afford. You may think more spending on “defence” is more important - you’re entitled to your view - but don’t try to pretend that’s has no impact on public services. Simply not true.
Which leaves us with assessing your perceived risk. The facts remain unchanged. Russia for all your bigging them up and for all the increased military spending you say they are incurring cannot get more than 100 miles into their neighbour with only very limited western military involvement. Yet bizarrely you argue that they are capable of marching not only across Ukraine and on to Warsaw or (oddly) Helsinki. There is nothing to suggest this is remotely credible.
Nor have you explained where the magic figure of 2.5% comes from. Why is the required number not 3% or 2.25% or 1.5%. It seems an arbitrary number picked out of the air. You seem to have fallen for the hype.
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Post by Zany on Apr 15, 2024 6:34:19 GMT
Our public services are a mess Zany. They need money spent on them , as much money as we can realistically afford. You may think more spending on “defence” is more important - you’re entitled to your view - but don’t try to pretend that’s has no impact on public services. Simply not true. Perhaps you could tell me how borrowing money to improve public services and increase defence has a negative effect on public services. Helsinki is not so odd if you know your Russian History. That aside, do you really believe the Ukraine could stand against Russia if it fully mobilised? It is an arbitrary number, there is no number of how much we should spend to strengthen our armed forces, just as there is no number for the repair of the health service. Whatever number you choose some would say we need more, some would say we need less. Are you going to make the argument how much?
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Post by Orac on Apr 15, 2024 8:39:01 GMT
Perhaps you could tell me how borrowing money to improve public services and increase defence has a negative effect on public services. I think Dappy is just using common sense here. Resources are called resources because they are needed and cost (ie they are needed and are in limited supply). If you use resources to do one thing, you can't use them again to do another thing.
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Post by dappy on Apr 15, 2024 11:47:37 GMT
Orac is right here Zany. Borrowing is not free money and is not unlimited. If you spend more money on “defence” , there is less money available for public services. You are trading a new hospital or school buildings addressing the concrete issues etc etc and spending the money on new tanks instead. You may feel that “defence” spending is still the biggest priority and hence new hospitals have to wait but you do need to be realistic and accept the choice you are making.
Frankly no idea why you feel Helsinki is most at risk. While Russia and Finland have fought wars in the past, Finland wasn’t under Soviet control when states such as the Baltic States were. They feel more at risk to me but I suggest we park that as something of a diversion.
I am sorry to keep labouring the point but the facts are that Western Europe outspends Russia at least 5 to 1 on military spending and even with limited western involvement ( no aircraft , no soldiers, no or very few tanks) , a determined Russia has failed to progress more than 100 miles or so. If you want me to sign off on throwing more money at weapons to reach your arbitrary 2.5%, I would need you to explain more convincingly why they are suddenly going to metamorphosise into an army capable of substantial progress against a full western defence including our aircraft and men. I don’t see the threat tbh.
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Post by Zany on Apr 15, 2024 16:12:28 GMT
Orac is right here Zany. Borrowing is not free money and is not unlimited. If you spend more money on “defence” , there is less money available for public services. You are trading a new hospital or school buildings addressing the concrete issues etc etc and spending the money on new tanks instead. You may feel that “defence” spending is still the biggest priority and hence new hospitals have to wait but you do need to be realistic and accept the choice you are making. Is that true? What is the cap on borrowing then and how wrong was it for the UK to borrow 275% of its GDP in WW2? Should they have shut the hospitals and schools while they fought the Germans? Just to balance the budget. As I said borrow the money for both if both are needed. You set the rules saying we can't do that I didn't. So Russia has never considered expanding its territory into Finland? So there was no need for Finland to join NATO? Gosh we should let them know. And I keep saying there is a difference between a bit of defence spending and all out war. Don't know why you find this so hard to understand. Britain's defence spending was not 53% of GDP before WW2, but it was when we went to full blown war.
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